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3 unheralded keys to the 2016 Yankees season

For the first time in several offseasons for the Yankees, there were blockbusters that both included big names and seemed to make perfect sense. Starlin Castro was the exact definition of a player who filled a need, so rare these days when teams overpay in prospects for big names and then decide they’ll finagle a fit at a later date. Aroldis Chapman, whether you liked the acquisition or not, was a full-powered stock that still could be bought low at the height of his abilities.

But the true keys to the Yankees’ success in 2016, as they always do, lie in the margins. One came over in a quieter acquisition on a sleepy November day, and the other two were in-house already, despite bumpy (quite literally) 2015s. Regardless, the quality of the innings these three soak up, whether or not they even make any sort of playoff roster, will prove vital to any chance of topping the division.

 

Aaron Hicks, OF

Simply put, Hicks has bigger shoes to fill than Yankee fans might want to acknowledge. It would be easy to underrate Chris Young’s performance watching him on a daily basis. It certainly seemed, to the naked eye, that Young had a torrid April and a very fringy finish to his campaign. However, Young was on the roster to mash taters and mash them off lefties, and he wrapped up with a .327 average, 7 homers and 31 RBI against all southpaws. Red Sox manager John Farrell has already asserted that Young will start against any lefty this season. Clearly, the league gets it. Young has significant value.

The good news is, a clicking Hicks could easily be an even younger Young. In 2015, he hit .307 against lefties with 6 bombs of his own. It was first a question of development for the first-round pick Hicks. Then, it was a question of playing time. Now, it’s simply a question of whether or not his second-half surge translates to full-time fearsomeness. Fangraphs speculates that a 20/20 season wouldn’t be out of the question this year at only 26 years old. Pumping the brakes a little, if he’s able to spell Carlos Beltran to the tune of 400 ABs and see his power surge continue, while taking full advantage of his Young-esque tendencies, then his plate appearances could truly be the difference between a playoff berth or not. The difference between Hicks and, say, Ben Francisco is truly staggering enough to make that sort of impact.

 

Chasen Shreve, RP

Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees

If Spring Training is any indication, the corner-dotting arm is back. Chasen Shreve woke up.

Which is good, because at the end of last season, most Yankee fans would’ve sent Shreve home with a one-way plane ticket to Tampa, then another one-way bus ticket from Tampa to Cape Canaveral, and then one final one-way ticket to the Moon.

At the end of 2015, Shreve lost everything he’d built with a dominant first half. Of all the young pieces of the “Bridge to Beta-Mill,” he’d been the steadiest. But on the heels of another reliable August, his ERA leapt to 11.12, and his usage dipped to only 5 2/3 unbearable innings.

If this team is to return to the playoffs, the Yankee bullpen isn’t just supposed to be a strength; it needs to be dominant the likes of which we’ve never seen. The back end…should be. The middle innings will be missing both Adam Warren and Justin Wilson. After Shreve’s disaster September, the Yanks decided to place even more faith in him. And he’s justified it so far this spring. Keep your fingers crossed he re-solidifies the bridge he helped form.

 

Bryan Mitchell, SP/RP

New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles - Game Two

Fact: the Yankees rotation, if they stay healthy, is well above average.

Fact: the Yankees rotation will not stay healthy.

This is absolutely no slight on the Yankees. It’s simply a reflection on the fact that no rotation over the course of a full season in baseball history has ever managed to escape a 162 game tumble unscathed. There will be a sixth starter. There will be a seventh. Call me insane, but I’m fairly confident there’ll be an eighth.

But this year, the first option to fill in won’t be soft-tossing lefty Chris Capuano. It’ll be fireballing wild card Bryan Mitchell. Despite shoddy numbers, the eye test proved Mitchell is both a viable Major League starter and a vast improvement on Capuano’s burnt-out wet rope of an arm. Once again, improvement comes not only on the marquee, but in the margins. Mitchell’s numbers dipped not because he’s not an electric and intriguing starter, but because he was drilled in the face by a line drive and couldn’t find his footing when he returned. Mitchell is better than Chris Capuano. Luis Cessa is better than Chris Capuano. So is Domingo German. Much like Castro-over-Drew, this is less of an improvement and more of a revolution in the margins.

 

 

The 2016 Yankees aren’t fathoms deeper than every Major League team. But they’re deeper than they were in 2015, a team that made enough noise to scratch the playoff picture. There’s more upside here in 2016. And a Shreve rebound, a Mitchell emergence and Hicks’ Chris Young impression could push the envelope in the direction of October. Now, if only the Houston Astros could show themselves out of the postseason this time, that’d be great.