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Friday Morning Mailbag – Miller, Chapman, and the offseason

Friday morning mailbag time. Thanks to those who submitted questions. If you have questions, tweet me (@Andrew_Rotondi) or email me ([email protected]). Let’s go!

It’s time to move on

Honestly, not that hard. Watching Andrew Miller dominate hitters and hoist the ALCS MVP trophy and Aroldis Chapman secure the Cubs first pennant in the era of home televisions was actually pretty enjoyable.

Miller and Chapman are great players but the Yankees had to trade them. The writing was on the wall for the 2016 Yankees – they stunk. Don’t let August and September fool you, the team was not good. Their offense was inconsistent and aging and their pitching staff had no depth. The one bright spot on the team were three relief pitchers whose effectiveness was contingent on the other 22 men performing, which did not happen often.

Miller, signed through 2018, and Chapman, an impending free agent, yielded the Yankees their current number one (Clint Frazier), two (Gleyber Torres), six (Justus Sheffield), and fifteen (Billy McKinney) prospects according to MLB Pipeline. Not to mention their current number ten prospect (Dillon Tate) was a result of the Carlos Beltran trade. That is astounding. I understand some fans are bitter watching Miller and Chapman pitch on baseball’s biggest stage, but the future is bright for the Yankees and that is due in large part to the trades Brian Cashman made this summer. Let’s move on and get excited for the young guys. 

 

The offseason

Depends what you consider a “big move.” Last season, fans said the Yankees made no moves because they didn’t sign any free agents for the first time in, well, forever, but I would consider trading for Starlin Castro and Aroldis Chapman “big moves.” Could the Yankees make another trade similar to those? Yes.

It would shock me if both Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are on the 2017 Opening Day roster. They are redundant players. Astoundingly redundant players.

Ellsbury since joining the Yankees (age 30-32 seasons): .264/.326/.382, 11 HR/year, 27 SB/year

Gardner over the same timeframe (age 30-32 seasons): .259/.340/.395, 13 HR/year, 19 SB/year

They are virtually indistinguishable with the exception of their paychecks. Ellsbury makes $8,642,857.00 more annually than Gardner, which which is why I expect Gardner to have a new home in 2017. In episode #100 of The Bronx Pinstripes Show we discussed a number of different trade scenarios for both Ellsbury and Gardner, but two that stick out for Brett are the Nationals and Giants.

As far as free agency goes, I don’t expect the Yankees to be major players. All the big bats – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, and Carlos Beltran – do not fit with the current plans of the Yankees, which is to build for the future. So I’ll take the cop-out answer and say I don’t want the Yankees to sign any position players. 

Unlike offense, the market for starting pitching is barren. Bullpen options are more interesting however. Chapman, as you all know, is available, but so is a guy like Mark Melancon who will cost a fraction of what Chapman will. Is he as good? No. But Melancon ranks third in WAR, first in ERA, and fourth in OPS-allowed for all relievers since 2013. Signing him would also allow the Yankees to comfortably turn Dellin Betances into a fireman and have an established name to be the traditional closer.

 

Let’s get nuts

This one made my brain hurt. Not because I don’t think it could ever happen, but because I can’t figure out if Detroit would actually be willing to trade Miggy if somebody came a-knocking.

The Tigers confuse me. On one hand they are all-in with their current roster, which finished 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with 86 wins. They are fourth in major league baseball with a $205+ million payroll, outdone by only the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski recently jettisoned for Boston during the 2015 season, but Tigers’ ownership did not let that stop them from inking Justin Upton to a $132M contract. Justin Verlander, who looked to be forever cursed by Kate Upton, had his best season since 2012. If they could just figure out how to build a bullpen perhaps they could be a dangerous team.

And on the other hand, they’re old — 7th oldest in baseball — and probably petrified the rug will be pulled out from under their veteran hitters at any moment.

That bring’s us to Miguel Cabrera, who is signed through 2023. Let me repeat that: Miguel Cabrera is signed THROUGH two thousand and twenty three. Not only will his contract go through yet another (hopefully less embarrassing) presidential election, but it is back-loaded, so he makes $32M in each of his last two years. It’s a ludicrous contract that I have to imagine Detroit ownership would be willing to relinquish for the right price.

So, what would that price be? Assuming you are willing to take on all or most of the money, it would still take a package of a MLB-ready player plus a prospect. Miggy cracked 38 home runs and finished 8th in offensive-WAR. Even at age 33 he is one of the most feared hitters in baseball. If the Yankees offered to pay his contract and sent Greg Bird and a high-end prospect to Detroit then I think Detroit would be willing to deal him. Having said all that, I want no part of that trade.

 

Hey look, another Miguel

In addition to mispronouncing his name on the podcast, we discussed Miguel Andujar’s play in the Arizona Fall League: .346 batting average and .419 on-base percentage. Andujar has also wowed scouts this fall, who project a big league future for the 21-year old third baseman.

Jason is right in saying that he will not replace Headley in 2017. But Andujar has greatly progressed in the past year and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he will be playing hot corner in the Bronx before Hadley’s contract is finished in 2018. We saw the Yankees unafraid to move on from veterans and play prospects despite some scouts thinking they were not ready. I have no reason to believe they will change their philosophy in 2017. Plus, the Yankees owe Chase Headley absolutely nothing (other than money, of course).