With the Cubs winning the World Series last night, teams are now in full Hot Stove mode. They are assessing their weaknesses and strengths, seeing what commodities are in their farm system and determining how aggressive they can be in the trade and free agent markets. Teams now have five days to decide if they want to extend a qualifying offer to their free agents.
With that in mind, here are the top-10 ranked MLB free agents and where the Yankees might come into play. (Key: Player Name, Position, Current Team, Age in 2017)
1. Edwin Encarnacion, First Base, ( TOR), Age: 34
-Notable 2016 numbers: 42 HR – 127 RBI – .529 SLG% – 160 G
-Top-5 MVP Candidate
-2016 salary: $10MM
Evaluation: Encarnacion played in 160 games this year for the first time in his career. He’s averaged 38 HR and 110 RBI over the last five seasons. This is his best, and probably his last chance to land a huge free agent contract. Encarnacion and the Blue Jays have had an interesting history together.
After the 2010 season, in which he earned over $5MM, the Blue Jays waived him rather than choosing to give him a big pay boost in arbitration. The Oakland A’s claimed him but then released him. Toronto snatched him back up with a one-year, $2MM contract with a $3.5MM option for 2012 (Which they picked up). Toronto eventually signed him to a three-year, $27MM deal in 2013 with a $10MM option, which was also picked up in 2016.
The demand will be great for Encarnacion, a fairly-young hitter with tremendous power. Of the team’s top three non-pitcher free agents – Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders being the others – Encarnacion is the player the Blue Jays would most likely re-sign.
Possible landings spots: In addition to the Blue Jays, the Yankees (replace Teixeira; split 1B/DH with Greg Bird), Red Sox (replace Big Papi; share 1B/DH with Hanley Ramirez), Mets (if the Wilpons open their wallets), Giants, Rangers (Joey Gallo could be dealt for more pitching), Cardinals, Marlins and Mariners. The early favorites are the Blue Jays, who will undoubtedly make a qualifying offer to Encarnacion.
2. Yoenis Cespedes, LF/CF (NYM), Age: 31 *
-Notable 2016 numbers: 31 HR – .530 SLG% – 132 G (2-week DL stint in August for quad injury)
-2016 salary: $27.5MM
* Can opt out of remaining two years of his contact
Evaluation: Several media outlets are reporting that Cespedes will opt out of the final two years of his current contract. His current deal is set to pay him $23.75MM in 2017 and 2018. But, at 31-years of age and with a poor free agent market this offseason, Cespedes could land himself a five-year, $100MM+ contract. The feeling here is that he will indeed go for the bigger deal.
Possible landing spots: The Mets still have to be considered the favorites, based on Cespedes’ affinity for playing for them, but big money sways a lot of player’s decisions on their future. The Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, White Sox and the Marlins have both the money and the need for Cespedes in their lineup. The Mets will extend a qualifying offer.
3. Aroldis Chapman, Closer (ChC), Age: 29
-Notable 2016 numbers: 36 saves/39 opportunities
-Consistently throws in excess of 100-MPH
-2016 salary: $11.325MM
Evaluation: Chapman is an intimidator. In the blink of an eye, you have to decide whether or not to hit a 90-95 MPH fastball. With Chapman, you are still in mid-blink when his fastball is bearing down on you. That being said, he is hittable – everyone is – if his location is off (or Joe Maddon uses him too much). Chapman is a classic strikeout closer. He struck out batters at a rate of 14/9 IP in 2016.
Chapman will be looking for a BIG money contract. A minimum of four years, at $15MM per year, sounds about right. The Phillies signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50MM deal in 2011. Pundits have been pointing to Papelbon’s deal as the baseline for a Chapman deal. However, another factor affecting negotiations might be the 30-game suspension handed down to Chapman after he was involved in a domestic dispute earlier this year.
Possible landings spots: With the emotion of the Cubs winning the World Series, they are the early favorite. The Yankees have been rumored to be interested because of Dellin Betances‘ struggles in September, but it’s hard to believe they would spend that much to bring Chapman back. Payroll will limit how many teams are in play for Chapman, but he will get his four-year contract. Houston, Texas, Dodgers (replace Jansen), Washington (replace Melancon), San Francisco and the Cardinals will be among the most interested.
4. Kenley Jansen, Closer (LAD), Age: 29
-Notable 2016 numbers: 47 saves/53 opportunities
-Jansen is predominately a cut-fastball pitcher with the occasional slider mixed in. His cutter is nearly 100 MPH with his non-cut fastball a couple of miles slower.
-2016 salary: $10.65MM
Evaluation: Jansen is probably the best, least-known closer in baseball. He’s averaged 42 saves over the past three seasons and he has struck out about 13.8/9 IP. His 2016 WAR varies depending on the source, but in all cases it was higher than Chapman’s. Jansen was shaky in the Division Series, but he was outstanding in the NLCS (10 K in 6.1 IP 0.00 ERA).
Possible landing spots: The Dodgers will do everything they can to re-sign him. Unless he’s blown away with an immediate offer, Jansen will likely have to wait until Chapman signs, which will set the bar for the free agent closers. The order should probably be reversed, but Chapman’s triple-digit fastball overwhelms batters, scouts, general managers, and owners. Like Chapman, payroll will limit how many teams are in play for Jansen, but he will also get a four-year contract. The Yankees could be players as will the same teams that will be considering Chapman. The Dodgers will extend a qualifying offer.
5. Mark Melancon, Closer (PIT, WAS), Age: 32
-Notable 2016 numbers: 1.64 ERA, 47 saves/51 opportunities, 0.897 ratio
-2016 salary: $9.65MM
Evaluation: Melancon is just a notch below Chapman and Jansen due to his “low” 8.2 K/9 IP. But, the right-hander has converted 98 saves in 106 chances over the last two seasons. Melancon struggled with control early in his career. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros passed him along. Then, his star power started to rise with the Pirates in 2013, and he’s been a three-time All-Star since then.
Possible landing spots: The Nationals would love to keep him, but there’s no way Melancon will take a qualifying offer. Melancon will land a three-to-four-year deal but may have to wait until both Chapman and Jansen sign. There will be more teams in play for Melancon, with teams figuring they can sign him for less than the “big two” closers. The Yankees could be considering a reunion. In addition to the teams kicking the tires on Chapman and Jansen, the Rays, Rockies, Mariners, Marlins, Tigers and Royals will have interest.
6. Rich Hill, Starter (OAK, LAD), Age: 37
-Notable 2016 numbers: 2.12 ERA – 10.5 K/9 IP – 0.997 WHIP – 12 Wins
– Will receive some Cy Young votes, but in which league?
– 2016 salary: $6MM
Evaluation: Due to injuries and early ineffectiveness, Hill was a late bloomer. This season was just the second in which he earned $1MM or better. He was limited to 19 starts due to a recurring blister, but was fantastic when he pitched. Despite the blister issue, Hill was in demand at the trade deadline. The Dodgers won out by sending prospect Jharel Cotton and two others to the A’s for Hill and outfielder Josh Reddick.
Hill allowed three earned runs or less in every regular season start but one. However, he can’t be relied upon to pitch seven innings on a regular basis. In fact, Hill recorded more than six full innings in just four of his 19 starts.The southpaw shut down the opposition’s running game; only 10 runners attempted to steal when Hill pitched.
Hill will benefit from the lack of quality starters that are potential free agents. That being said, Hill will be 37 when the 2017 season rolls around. You would be hard-pressed to find a team willing to give Hill more than three years guaranteed ($8MM – 10MM per?). For that matter, he may have difficulty finding a team that will give him more than two years guaranteed, with a third-year option/buyout.
Possible landing spots: Likely landing spots could be just about anywhere. There are plenty of teams that could use his services. Early favorites are the Dodgers.
7. Mark Trumbo, Right Field (BAL), Age: 31
-Notable 2016 numbers: 47 HR (AL #1) – 108 RBI – .533 SLG% -159 G
-Top-10 MVP candidate
-2016 salary: $9.15MM
Evaluation: Trumbo is the favorite to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Injuries limited him to 96 games in 2015, 13 HR and 41 RBI. Baltimore took a low-risk gamble by acquiring him last offseason from the Mariners. Trumbo appeared in 159 games for the Orioles and produced an AL-leading 47 home runs, and drove in 108 runs.
Trumbo has actually played more games at first base (371) than he has in the outfield (361). Though he’s never been known for his defense, being a two-position player could give him more teams to choose from. Trumbo will be looking for a long-term, big money deal…like practically everyone else. With the Orioles having signed first baseman Chris Davis to a seven-year, $154MM contract prior to last season and outfielder Adam Jones due to earn over $33MM over the next two seasons, Baltimore is not likely to give Trumbo a substantial deal.
Possible landing spots: The teams interested in Trumbo are similar to those looking at Encarnacion: Yankees, Red Sox, Mets (stronger possibility than Encarnacion), Giants, Cardinals, and Mariners. He could also replace Encarnacion, Bautista, or Saunders on the Blue Jays. The chances are 50/50 that the O’s will make a qualifying offer.
8. Matt Wieters, Catcher (BAL), Age: 30
-Notable 2016 numbers: 17 HR – 166 RBI- .409 SLG% – 113 G at catcher – 35% Caught Stealing
-All-Star
-2016 salary: $15.8MM
Evaluation: Wieters was on the precipice of stardom when an injury to his right elbow necessitated Tommy John surgery in 2014. The catcher played just 25 games prior to the surgery and was limited to 75 last year. He appeared in 124 games this past season and caught in all but 11 of those games. Wieters averaged 22 HR and 73 RBI in the three season leading up to his injury. After a slow start this past season, Wieters hit well in May and June and made the All-Star team.
Near the end of June, Wieters splits were .278/.332/.471. After the break, Wieters started an offensive slide that saw his Batting Avg. drop nearly 40 points and his Slugging Pct. slip to .409. Wieters will need to take a significant pay cut if he wants a long-term contract. According to rumors, the Orioles are in conflict about whether to extend a qualifying offer to their eight-year veteran. This year’s offer is $17.2MM, a hefty price to pay for a player still working his way back from major surgery. (The Orioles shouldn’t offer it.)
Possible landing spots: The Orioles are slight favorites to retain Wieters, who would most likely jump at the chance at $17.2MM, if Baltimore offers it. Wieters shouldn’t be given more than three years guaranteed, at around $12MM annually. The Tigers have already spent plenty of money on free agents in the last few years, but they could use Wieters. So could Cleveland, at least until Francisco Mejia is ready. Atlanta, if they don’t reacquire McCann, the Mets and White Sox could be in play. A healthy Wieters would be a tremendous addition to the Mariners or Astros.
9. Ian Desmond, SS/OF (TEX), Age: 31
-Notable 2016 numbers: .285/.335/.446 split – 22 HR – 86 RBI – 21 SB – 156 G
– 2016 salary: $8MM
Evaluation: After a pretty miserable 2015 season (.694 OPS), Desmond had to settle for a one-year deal with Texas and a $3MM pay cut. He should make up for it this year. A full-time shortstop in his seven years on the Nationals, Desmond became the regular center fielder for the Rangers this past year. It’ll be interesting to see what position he plays next season since he’s not particularly adept at either.
Possible landing spots: It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rangers brought Desmond back, but they won’t make him a qualifying offer. Desmond should get something in the neighborhood of three years, $30MM. Look for Tampa Bay (will they ever open their wallets for some hitters?), the Mets, Royals, Padres, Brewers, Reds and Blue Jays to be among those chasing Desmond.
10. Justin Turner, 3B (LAD), Age: 32
-Notable 2016 numbers: 27 HR – 90 RBI – .832 OPS – 34 2B – 151 G
-2016 salary: $5.1MM
Evaluation: Times have changed since the Dodgers signed Turner to a minor league deal prior to the 2014 season. Turner, who was a mediocre utility player with the Mets, had a breakout season last year and a career-year in 2016. He established career-highs in almost every offensive category, which means he should get a good boost from the $5MM he earned this past season.
Probable landing spots: The Dodgers will try to re-sign Turner and the wild-haired redhead would probably like to stay. Turner should get a three-year deal similar to Desmond’s. The Twins, Brewers, and perhaps a reunion with the Mets could be in order.
Outfielder Jay Bruce and starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Derek Holland could impact the market if their team options are not picked up. Of the three, Gonzalez is the most likely to be a free agent.
Note – A correction has been made to the text of this article. Players who were dealt during the season are not eligible for a qualifying offer. For the players mentioned in the top-10 ranking, Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon and Rich Hill are not eligible.
