When the trade deadline rolls around each year, one of the hottest commodities are relief pitchers. Rumors have already been swirling for well over a month about the Yankees’ lefty pair of relievers, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. It’s understandable why teams are scouting both and have contacted the Yankees about both. Though Chapman is the full-time closer, Miller was the closer last year and held the role this season until Chapman returned from a 30-game suspension.
Both possess nasty pitches, and Chapman regularly dials up three numbers on the radar gun. Miller entered the Colorado Rockies series with a career-high 16.7 K/9 IP, while Chapman was ringing up 13.2K/9 innings, actually below his norm of 15.3K/9 IP. Incredibly, Miller has walked a mere three hitters, compared to the 53 batters he’s rung up. Miller had never been a closer until he joined the Yankees as a free agent last season, but since being called upon, he has converted 43 of 46 (93.5%) save opportunities. Chapman, by comparison, has made good on 159 of 178 save chances (89.3%), and has not blown more than five save opportunities in the four prior years that he was the full time closer. (He’s converted 13 of 14 in 2016.)
Larger numbers to look at, however, are the number of zeros and commas in the duo’s paychecks. Chapman is being paid more than $11MM dollars this year and is an unrestricted free agent after this season. A pitcher blessed with an arm that can hit 105-mph on the radar gun and regularly registers 100+ mph with his fastball is going to want a lot of money on his next contract. He’ll want multiple years as well. Ex-Yankee David Robertson signed a four-year, $46MM deal with the Chicago White Sox prior to last season. Chapman most certainly will be looking for a deal with an average salary that is greater than Robertson’s $11.5MM per year. Though he may not be able to find a guaranteed deal that is in excess of three years, Chapman will be looking for money that will top $15MM annually. That’s Mariano Rivera-type money, and Chapman’s record is certainly proof he deserves a deal of that magnitude.
For a moment, think of yourself as a team’s decision maker. Would you want to gamble on giving that kind of a deal to a person who, according to news reports, may or may not have abused his girlfriend, but most certainly put a number of bullet holes in his garage in a fit of rage? Stability an issue, perhaps? On the other hand, the Yankees already have Miller under contract at a bargain rate of $9MM for each of the next two seasons. By then, the hope is that Dellin Betances, at the very least, can move into the full-time closer role. So far, he hasn’t pitched with the consistency it takes to be the closer at this time.
The Steinbrenner family has shaved payroll the last few years, so keeping Miller also makes sense in that regard. Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira come off the payroll after this season and Alex Rodriguez’s contract is up after the 2017 season. Looking at next year’s roster, the team will need a first baseman, with Greg Bird having the best shot. At the very least, Joe Girardi could platoon Bird with a right-handed hitter – possibly Gary Sanchez, who has begun working out at first base for Triple-A Scranton. Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius are set as the middle infielders, and Chase Headley has two more years on his contract to play third base. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury have two of the three outfield spots sewn up, with a plan that moves Aaron Judge into right field, either as a regular part of the lineup or in a platoon with a left-handed hitter. (With age and injury risk concerns, the Yankees should resist the temptation to bring Beltran back on a one-year deal, even if his remarkable season continues this year.)
The starting rotation is a huge question mark at the present time. Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia are the only reliable starters in the five-man rotation. The hope is that Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino can develop into full-time star Major Leaguers. It’s a big question mark, and even more of a reason to be sellers at the deadline. Just look at some of the the deals that have occurred in the last five or six non-waiver trade deadlines. In 2008, the A’s sent Rich Harden to the Chicago Cubs for a group of players that included Josh Donaldson, last year’s AL MVP. A year later, the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee in a deal that sent pitcher Carlos Carrasco to the Indians. Carrasco is developing into one of the top pitchers in the game. In 2010, a three-way deal with the Indians, Cardinals, and Padres that involved Jake Westbrook going from Cleveland to St. Louis, resulted in 2014 AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber traveling from San Diego to Cleveland.
The point is that the Yankees could really do well if they choose to sell at this year’s deadline. And they should deal, because if you take a realistic look at the current team, they are not one or two players away from a title. But they can get a lot closer by moving Chapman. And, while Miller would bring back some potential stars as well, the Yankees would be better to keep him to make the turnaround to a contender a smoother process.
