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MLB is poised to resume play in May…but should they?

Jeff Passan reports early Tuesday morning:

It seems an inevitability at this point that Major League Baseball is determined to proceed with the season as planned, likely planning to start games without fans in attendance in remote spring training parks until getting the all clear from health officials to resume normal league activities. Should the league stop to consider if rushing the start of the season to the tune of a few lackluster, empty-ballpark games is really what’s best for baseball?

To many, the chance to compact the season into a few months of full-capacity games presents a unique opportunity to counteract a problem that has long plagued professional baseball. Consider how the AL East wrapped up last year:

On September 29th, 2019, the Red Sox suited up for their season finale. They would send out their breakout pitcher of 2019, Eduardo Rodriguez, to take on an Orioles lineup that was sitting 48 games out of first place in the AL East, in the midst of a complete rebuild. Mookie Betts was starting in what most MLB insiders speculated would be his final game in a Red Sox uniform, given the unlikely possibility of Betts and the Sox agreeing on new contract before the 2020 season. 

No one thought this game would serve as anything more than a tip of the cap for Mookie; a chance to get a few at final bats and say goodbye to the Fenway Faithful.

What ensued was an absolute rollercoaster of a finish to the 2019 season. Knotted at 3 in the 7th, Rafael Devers got the action moving by depositing a 1-0 hanger into the right field corner. He’d scamper into second base with his 200th hit of the season, the first time since A-Rod’s 1996 campaign that an AL player had reached that mark before his 23rd birthday. Devers’ buddy Xander Bogaerts would then drive him in with a single to left to take a late lead, and Fenway Park was sent into a frenzy as the usually stoic Bogey screamed and pounded his chest.

Jonathan Villar would knot the game with a base hit in the top of 8th, and Stevie Wilkerson would preserve the tie later that inning, pulling back a JBJ go-ahead blast in what can only be described as one of the most preposterous catches we’ve seen this decade.

But the Orioles were unable to piece anything together in the 9th, setting the table for Markus Lynn Betts to take his final bow.

Mookie walked to start the inning, nothing unusual there. Mookie reached first 97 times on a free pass in 2019, a career high. Devers would follow that up with a high chopper to second, but it managed to find a soft spot in the shift, deflecting off the glove of Richie Martin and into shallow right to set up what would’ve been first and third for Bogaerts.

But Mookie never stopped. In one final feat of sheer athleticism and awareness, Mookie would hustle into third, take an aggressive turn, and pause for a moment as if to retreat back to the bag. Wilkerson took the bait, tossing a lollypop to the cut off man as Mookie took off, diving into home and screaming towards the heavens as his teammates mobbed him at the plate. It was one of the most electric games of the entire 2019 season, featuring dynamic performances from marquee players and a perfect curtain call for a generational talent.

No one cared. 

The Red Sox would enter this game 20 games back of the Yankees within the division and 13 back of the wildcard, long removed from the race for the postseason.Their final game drew a slightly-below average game attendance and a well-below average TV viewership at the time of first pitch, a trend for them throughout the final month of the season. Many other teams would experience similar challenges keeping fans engaged, as four division races would be decided by more than 7 games. 

This is a problem that faces Major League Baseball year after year. 

As NFL fans salivate over “In-the-Hunt” graphics, pouring over every mathematical possibly that the 6-8 Raiders could sneak into the playoffs, baseball has watched year after year as fan interest has tapered off into late August and September before spiking again for October playoffs.

What if it weren’t this way?

Rob Manfred now possesses a unique opportunity to corner the market on the type of fan Major League baseball has long sought after. While diehard fans remain loyal to the brand even when perennial powerhouses like the Dodgers and Astros run away with their respective divisions, casual fans tune out.

The TBS broadcast of the 2018 MLB AL Wild Card game drew an average minute audience of 6.4 million viewers, peaking at 7.5 million viewers when the Yankees posted 4 runs in a 6th inning onslaught. The Yankees would go on to win, traveling to Boston a few days later for an ALDS Game 1 matchup that drew only 5.7 million viewers on FOX. Later that series, a decisive Game 4 would drive an average of 7.15 million viewers, the league’s third highest single-game viewership since 2011. 

Why is this important for league executives to notice? Because MLB diehard fans love baseball, but casual fans love baseball that MATTERS. 

Now consider what could become a reality for the 2020 MLB season: an entire season of action crammed into a boisterous, 70 game slate that evokes the nostalgia of a summer Little League schedule. Less games means less rest days necessary for stars, more stars on the field means higher quality of play. Instead of 76 divisional games in a year, there would be somewhere around 36 (3 series per matchup). That means HUGE implications on the line every time division rivals meet. Games would be managed tighter, with shorter leashes for starting pitchers and a bigger emphasis on late-inning pinch hitters. The tactics, personnel decisions, and overall atmosphere of these games would more closely resemble October baseball, and that means a better product for fans.

Most importantly, it doesn’t provide juggernaut teams a chance to pull away in the division, keeping casual fans interested and engaged in the product. In an average year, most teams are sitting right around 70 games played by June 15th. If we want to see how many division races would theoretically come down to the final series in a 70 game slate, let’s take a look at the history:

June 15th, 2019: 3 division races within 3.0 games

June 15th, 2018: 5 division races within 3.0 games 

June 15th, 2017: 4 division races within 3.0 games

In a league that’s lucky to see two divisions decided by less than 3 games (only one such year since 2015), a shortened 2020 season will likely see three, four, or even FIVE division races come down to the final weekend. This is the perfect opportunity to inject Major League Baseball with the drama and theatrics that give the NFL and NBA widespread appeal all over the globe. Now it lies on league officials and ownership to finally capitalize.

(I’m extremely confident that Rob Manfred will squander it by forcing teams to play sleepy regular season games in spring training ballparks with no one in the stands, as Passan implied in his article. I just want the record to show I plead my case)

If you’re like me and you like late season dramatics, here’s all the best moments from MLB tiebreakers through the years: