World championships can’t be won in April, but a team can certainly increase its odds of taking home the prize during the first month of games.
After finishing April with an American League-best record of 15-8, the Yankees enter May with a 55-percent chance of making the postseason, and a 33-percent chance of clinching the AL East (best odds in division), according to FiveThirtyEight’s most recent season projections. While October baseball in the Bronx would be a sight for sore eyes, the team is also given a 5-percent chance of winning the Fall Classic.
Based on win-loss simulations, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts the Yankees to finish with a record of 88-74, a nine-win difference from their calculations back on April 3 (79-83, 24-percent at postseason, 12-percent at AL East). Trailing in the division would be the Red Sox (87-75), Orioles (84-78), Rays (80-82), and Blue Jays (76-86). The forecast also lists the Indians to finish with an American League-best 94 wins, followed by the Astros with 93.
The Yankees open May with a three-game set against the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium, followed by an interleague series with the defending champion Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field starting Friday. Half of New York’s 28 games this month will also be played on the road.
