A quarter of the 2017 season is already in the books, but the latest odds and figures suggest the Yankees’ campaign will stretch beyond the month of September.
Sitting atop the American League East standings with a record of 26-16, New York currently has a 66-percent chance of making the postseason, and a 44-percent chance of clinching the AL East (best odds in division), according to FiveThirtyEight’s most recent season projections. The Yankees are also given a six-percent chance of winning baseball’s Fall Classic.
Based on win-loss simulations, FiveThirtyEight expects New York to finish with 90 wins–just a one-win difference from last week’s projections (May 16). Two weeks ago on May 9, the Yankees were marked to finish with 92 wins, but three losses at home to the AL-best Houston Astros resulted in slightly lower ratings. Yet, 90 wins is an 11-win difference from FiveThirtyEight’s projections on Opening Day (79-83, 24-percent at postseason, 12-percent at AL East).
While the Yankees lead the Orioles by just 1.5 games in the division, FiveThirtyEight projects the Red Sox to finish in second place (85-77 predicted record), the Orioles to finish third (83-79), the Rays fourth (81-81), and Blue Jays in last (77-85). The forecast also lists the Astros to finish with an American League-best 98 wins, followed by the Indians with 91.
New York will host the Royals in the second of seven consecutive games played at Yankee Stadium this week.
