With news that David Robertson will be extended a qualifying offer of $15.3 million from the New York Yankees on Monday, the closer could be a good fit for a return to the Yankees in his ninth inning role.
Robertson, 30, in his first year as the Yankees full-time closer got 39 saves in 44 opportunities. He pitched to a 3.08 ERA and struck out 96 batters over 64.1 innings (13.4 K/9). In the American League, only Seattle Mariners’ Fernando Rodney (48) and Kansas City Royals’ Greg Holland (46) had more saves than Robertson.
In addition, the 13.4 K/9 is the second best strikeout per nine innings of Robertson’s career behind 13.5 K/9 in 2011 when he struck out 100 over 66.2 innings and was an All-Star.
In the minds of many Yankees fans, the replacement to Robertson was looming (largely) over David Robertson already in pinstripes. The name that often comes up in high demand as the 2015 New York Yankees closer is Dellin Betances.
Betances, 26, was outstanding in his first full season at the major league level. Starting the season by frequently appearing in the sixth inning, he moved up the pecking order in the bullpen and by July he was regularly used as the eighth inning relief pitcher, setting up David Robertson. In 90 innings pitched, Betances struck out a single season, franchise record 135 batters to a 13.5 K/9.
When the numbers are laid out next to each other, it is very one-sided as to why many would believe Betances would excel at the closer’s role:
| Name (Games) | Innings Pitched | Saves/Holds | ERA | WHIP | K (K/9) | HR (HR/9) | BB (BB/9) |
| Robertson (63) | 64.1 | 39 | 3.08 | 1.06 | 96 (13.4) | 7 (1.0) | 23 (3.2) |
| Betances (70) | 90.0 | 1 save/22 holds | 1.40 | 0.79 | 135 (13.5) | 4 (0.4) | 24 (2.4) |
While this simple comparison could justify not making a determined effort to bring back Robertson, the bigger picture, much like entering 2014 supplies a better question, who replaces Dellin Betances?
Currently on the Yankees 40-man roster, the likely candidates to get the first chance at setting up Betances would be relievers Adam Warren and Shawn Kelley.
| Name (Games) | Innings Pitched | Saves/Holds | ERA | WHIP | K (K/9) | HR (HR/9) | BB (BB/9) |
| Warren (69) | 78.2 | 3 saves/23 holds | 2.97 | 1.11 | 76 (8.7) | 4 (0.5) | 24 (2.7) |
| Kelley (59) | 54.2 | 4 saves/12 holds | 4.53 | 1.26 | 67 (11.7) | 5 (0.9) | 20 (3.5) |
Warren, 27, formerly a starting pitcher, spent the entire 2014 season as relief pitcher. Like most starting pitchers turned relief pitchers, all of his pitches received an increase in velocity and it saw his strikeouts go higher while fewer batters reached base in every way. He frequently found himself pitching in the seventh inning and put together a very solid season.
Kelley, 30, in his second year with the Yankees had a difficult season. As the senior right-handed relief pitcher in the bullpen with five years of major league experience, he started the season as the setup relief pitcher in the eighth inning and Kelley briefly stepped into the closer’s role when David Robertson went down with an injury. Ineffectiveness and an injury of his own slowed down Kelley who missed most of May before returning in June. He struggled with his return and as a result, lost his eighth inning role in the bullpen. He was mostly relegated to sixth or seventh inning roles. He would also be seen as a last resort relief pitcher when all other pitchers were used.
There have always been two big issues that many have with the pitching style that David Robertson uses, excessive pitches and a lack of clean innings without a hit, walk or run allowed.
In the 63 appearances by Robertson, 21 of them have been of one inning or more without a hit, walk or run. Comparably, Dellin Betances had 23 appearances of one inning or more without a hit, walk or run in his 70 appearances. Coincidentally, that calculates to a clean inning or more of work in 33% of the time for both of them.
The potential replacements for Betances in the setup role, Kelley and Warren, did not pitch with the same effectiveness as their other, more elite, relief pitchers. Of Adam Warren’s 69 appearances, 20 of them were of an inning or more without a hit, walk or run allowed. Shawn Kelley pitched in 59 games and 16 of them were of an inning or more without a hit, walk or run allowed. Calculated, Warren had a clean inning 29% of the time and Kelley had a clean inning 27% of the time.
David Robertson threw the most pitches per plate appearance of the four relievers analyzed here. While Robertson averaged 4.20 pitches per plate appearance, Adam Warren was a close second with 4.11 and Shawn Kelley followed with 4.04. Dellin Betances kept his just under 4.00 with 3.98 pitches per plate appearance. All of these averages are relatively close to one another.
Could Dellin Betances succeed as the Yankees closer? There is a very strong case to support him becoming the closer. The problem has never been about Dellin Betances struggling as a closer. The question you have to ask yourself is: Do you believe the Yankees have someone that can be the bridge to Dellin Betances?
