A team with a .500 record is generally regarded as mediocre and most likely their hopes of making the playoffs rely on being in wildcard contention. But, what if the entire division was very evenly matched and no one single team could pull away over the course of the season? Could an 81 win team take the division? And what would their odds be of winning in the postseason?
Before we dive into this, I want to set some ground rules. This will only include seasons of divisional play from 1969 forward and will exclude any strike years. I know some will bring up the 1994 strike shortened season which ended with the Texas Rangers leading the AL West at 52-62 and the Dodgers leading the NL West at 58-56. But, there were no playoffs that year, so it is thrown out. The same restriction applies to 1981 and 1995. The further expansion of divisions in 1994 has only added to the possibility that we could have a .500 winner.
The 1973 Mets won their last two games to finish at 82-79, only 1.5 games ahead of St. Louis and 11 games ahead of the last place Phillies. They still won the NLCS and lost in the World Series to Oakland in seven games. The 2005 Padres came even closer to .500, winning on the last day of the season to finish at 82-80. Every team in the NL West that year was beset by large numbers of injuries. The Padres would be swept in the division series. The 2006 Cardinals won their division at 83-78 and still managed to win the World Series that year, showing that it doesn’t always take 95-100 wins to have a successful season.
The AL East this year looks to be very hotly contested with each team having the chance to be in the hunt right down to the end. Going into today, the Yankees lead the division with a 13-9 mark and Toronto in last place at 10-12, three games back. Granted, the calendar is just turning to May and less than 15% of the baseball season has been played, but things are shaping up to go down to the wire.
The Yankees have just begun a stretch of 17 straight against division opponents. They are currently 8-7 against the AL East. They are 5-2 against non-division opponents, with series wins against the first place Tigers and Mets. The rest of the division has a .500 record vs. the AL East and each team has a winning record vs. the rest of baseball. These five teams may just beat up on each other all season long, but whoever comes out of the scrum will still be one of the better teams in baseball and will be a force to be reckoned with in the postseason.
Many factors will go into determining the finishing order in the division. Injuries such as the one to Masahiro Tanaka this week will certainly be a concern for each team. The trading deadline will be quite a frenzy as each team will more than likely still be in the hunt. Teams will go on winning streaks and at the end of the line, the possibility certainly exists for there to be a 95+ game winner in the division. But, in reality, they stack up evenly, with each team having weaknesses. Toronto and Boston need pitching. The Yankees are possibly a pitcher (come on Ivan Nova) and one bat short. Tampa hasn’t got as much offense, but by the time Matt Moore and Alex Cobb return, they may have the best rotation in baseball.
Yankees fans, we can hope that the roll the team has been on the past 10 games will continue throughout the season. If things go right, this team is certainly capable of winning 90 or more games and the division. The flip side is that the other four teams are capable of the same thing right now, so it may just be a dog fight to 81 wins. Either way, it sets up to be a great ride to the end of 2015 in the Bizarro AL East. Here’s to hoping the Yankees have what it takes to find the forbidden city of the playoffs.
