I have stuck with the Yankees for almost my entire life. Admittedly, my lifetime has seen five World Series championships and a consistent contender, but right now this franchise has reached a crossroads. But the “old guard,” the players who helped bring the 2009 championship, are now shells of their former selves. The team’s roster will be due for an overhaul soon, but right now, this team is old, mediocre, and not all that fun to watch. Every day the Yankees choose not to sell off, their assets lose a little more trade value. If the Yankees are not careful, they will end up in the cellar in much the same way as the once-mighty Philadelphia Phillies. I want the Yankees to win, but at this point, I’m willing to accept a losing stretch if it means that the Yankees will win more in the long term.
Don’t fool yourself into thinking this team is the one. The 2016 Yankees do not make for a strong World Series contender. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira aren’t the 30 home run bats they once were. The Yanks can’t ride CC Sabathia’s arm all the way anymore. The back end of the bullpen may be lights-out, but can you count on anyone else? Chasen Shreve? Sergio Santos? Nick Goody?
According to FanGraphs, the Yankees offense is fifth-worst in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), behind light-hitting teams like the Padres, Brewers, and Twins. In more traditional stats, the Yankees are 18th in batting average, 20th in home runs, and 24th in runs scored. The pitching is not much better, as while the Yankees’ pitching WAR is good for fifth in the majors, their 4.39 team ERA is only 18th best. These numbers do not really suggest that this team could remain contenders through September.
For the Yankees to succeed long-term, it would help them to lose in the next few weeks. It feels wrong. I can’t actively root against the team that I picked many years ago, the team that I’ve staked myself to. I’ll hope they win and that everything works out, but if they lose, I’ll be ok with it. It will be one more piece of evidence to justify a sell-off. One more step toward acquiring a prospect or a piece who will help the Yankees start their next dynasty in a few years.
At this point, the Yankees have spent years trying to make a contender out of increasingly aging, increasingly mediocre teams. This effort leads to yearly mediocrity. There’s a reason the Yankees have not cleared the 90 win mark since 2012, and that is because they constantly try to keep the sinking ship afloat. This strategy has become ineffective at this point. While the Yankees may be able to sign a few quality free agents this offseason, they may want to take the next couple of years and try to build something special.
Now I’m not suggesting that the Yankees start to tank and commence a massive, multi-year rebuild in a similar vein to what the Houston Astros pulled off a few years ago. The Yankees need to just be smart over the next few years. The Cubs, Royals, and Red Sox all provide proof of cases where teams have sacrificed at least one season to build a quality on-field product through prospect development and making the right signings. The Yankees may understand this, but the front office needs a sign that it will be ok to sell. If a losing stretch over the month of July is the evidence they need for this, I’ll accept it.
The Yankees need to try to get some return for some of the old, expiring contract players before they walk away in free agency. An offensively deprived contender could help the Yankees fill a need in return for Carlos Beltran. Beltran could fetch a prospect or two that could help the Yankees build on their improving farm system, or maybe even bring in some deeper bullpen help in return. A lefty set-up man who can get outs would be much appreciated, both this year and beyond. Trading Aroldis Chapman could net the Yankees a very nice package from a contender in need of bullpen help, like the Cubs for instance. The Cubs’ cup runneth over with prospects, so the Yankees may be able to net an impressive young talent like Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, or Willson Contreras in return.
But of course, the Yankees front office is having none of that right now. Particularly if you believe Yankees President Randy Levine, who went so far as to dismiss the notion of the Yankees selling at the trade deadline as “nonsense.” The Yankees currently sit a little too far out of first place to be contenders, but they are just close enough in the Wild Card race to avoid being outright sellers at the trade deadline. If this Yankees team wins games, however, it will be a fluke. The Yankees’ aging lineup and shallow pitching rotation will not last down the stretch.
I do not want to see this team sacrifice the next five-to-ten years in the name of desperately flailing for contention today. The club’s focus should be on building for two or three years from now, when the contracts of players like Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and Alex Rodriguez will come off the books and they will have room to make some quality signings and let their prospects gain more development opportunities. This will give the Yankees time to let a young, talented nucleus of prospects develop and also free up some cash that can be used to give Bryce Harper a contract should he hit the open market in a few years. But for the Yankees to build for this future, it might just help them to lose between now and the trade deadline.
