In their 2003 hit “Hey Ya,” the rap group OutKast asked “What’s cooler than being cool?” The response, “ice cold,” describes the Yankees’ hitters perfectly right now. The Yankees offense has been brutal, hideous, or perhaps… offensive. (I’ll show myself out.) The once-lively Bronx Bombers have not scored in 26 innings entering Tuesday’s game, and have only scored four runs in their last five games. Individual players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner have been in offensive downturns of their own, and Didi Gregorius has somehow been the best offensive option for the Yankees in this past week. This slump seems particularly unusual because of the Yankees’ offensive ways and unfortunately timed as the Yankees have played back-to-back series against division rivals. So what has been fueling the Yankees slump? Is there some sort of advanced statistical explanation for all this?
First, let’s look at how good the Yankees have been as a whole this year. They are currently 2nd in the majors in run production, 3rd in home runs, 5th in OPS, and 9th in batting average. The Yankees have also done a good job on the whole with plate discipline, as they are 22nd in the majors in strikeouts by hitters, but 5th in drawing walks. The Yankees have also succeeded this year with runners in scoring position, as their .273 average in those situations is 6th best among all teams this season. If at any point in the article, it gets to feeling like too much, come back to this paragraph, read it, and breathe easy again.
One problem has been the pitchers the Yankees have faced. In four of those five games in which the Yankees scored four total runs, the Yankees faced knuckleballers on two of those days in Steven Wright and R.A. Dickey, but had to face regular pitchers the day after on both occasions. A knuckleballer already messes with a hitter’s timing, but having to quickly alternate between the approach to hitting a knuckleballer and the approach to hitting an ace like David Price is something that not even the best hitters in the world can do. This seems like a good explanation as to why the Yankees’ hard-hit % is at 17.6% over the past week according to FanGraphs, which is worst in all of baseball.
Speaking of timing, that’s the real reason why this slump feels so awful. Everybody goes through slumps—even the same Blue Jays who own baseball’s top offense went through a stretch in early July where they scored five runs in ten games vs. Kansas City and the White Sox. But the Yankees had their slump against a surging Jays team that is catching the Yankees in the standings. Meanwhile, in the last week the Yankees have batted .199 as a team with a BABIP of .234. Keep in mind that the Yankees’ are at .256 and .286 on those respective numbers this year. And furthermore, while the Yankees’ team average is relatively high, the team BABIP is tied for fourth-worst and could stand to rise over the last two months of the season thanks purely to positive regression.
Meanwhile, if we look at the odds for the Yankees to make the playoffs, according to Basebal Reference they are at 88.4%, and their odds give the Yankees a 52.5% chance at winning the division. Their adjusted playoff percentage still gives the Yankees a 70.7% chance to be in the ALDS. FanGraphs has a similar model that rates the Yankees at an 89.9% chance of making the playoffs, 53.3% chance of winning the division, and a 72.3% chance of being in the ALDS. These odds are essentially meaningless, since they don’t play games using statistical projections and simulations, but they are often a pretty good indicator of a team’s chances.
So in essence, apart from unfortunate BABIP and bad timing, there’s no advanced statistical explanation to all of this. The Yankees are having some badly timed bad luck. Remind yourself of this. Luck bounces back and improves over time. They are lucky to still have a division lead through this slump and still have just under two months to figure it all out. It’s a long season, so just go back and remind yourself how good the Yankees’ offense has been all season. They should figure it out.
