It’s been a big drop-off over the last couple of years for the Yankees’ big left-hander CC Sabathia. The former Cy Young Winner and six-time All-Star has not been pitching up to the 5 year, $122 million extension he signed prior to the 2012 season. Sabathia has put up a 4-8 record, along with a 5.54 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts in 117 innings this season. It’s doubtful he’ll ever be the ace he used to be, but taking a look at his peripherals, things have to improve for CC eventually.
Sabathia’s average fastball velocity has been above 90 mph in his last four starts and five of his last six. This is a good sign considering his average fastball velocity has been below 90 mph the last two seasons, which have been the two worst of his career. He had a consistent fastball velocity in the mid-90’s throughout his career, and put up an average velocity above 90 mph as recently as 2013.
Sabathia has still put up a pretty good 3.88 K-BB ratio, striking out 7.46 batters and walking 1.92 batters per nine innings. His strikeout rate this year is not far behind his career average of 7.76 strikeouts per nine innings and his walk rate is well below his career average of 2.66 walks per nine. He has allowed a .330 BABIP to opposing hitters, 10th among qualified starters. His batted ball profile has been right in line with career averages, and he has still induced ground balls 45.1% of the time, in line with his career average of 45.4%. but he has suffered from a 19.4% home run/fly ball ratio. Sabathia put up a 23.4% rate in 2014, but prior to that never had the rate higher than 13%. Per Fangraphs, CC has given up hard contact on 30.9% of balls in play, a little above his career average of 26.9%, but not the worst rate of his career.
There are more good signs in adjusted calculations of Sabathia’s numbers. Sabathia’s xFIP, adjusting for defense and resetting his home run/fly ball ratio to a number more similar to his average, sits at 3.68. His SIERA sits at 3.74. In other words, Sabathia’s ERA, all things being equal, ought to be nearly two runs lower than the 5.54 ERA he has now.
It’s easy to write off the 35 year-old because of the bad numbers and it’s even easier to go after his massive contract, but the details show that Sabathia is still a decent pitcher. He is still inducing ground balls, striking out batters, and keeping his walk rate low. When the luck goes his way, he still has it. Before his two most recent bad starts, Sabathia put up two quality starts and had four quality starts in a seven-start span.
Luis Severino has been called up and his presence may still knock Sabathia out of the rotation when Michael Pineda returns if Severino puts up good enough numbers. Adam Warren has been impressive as both a starter and a reliever and Bryan Mitchell has put up numbers to warrant rotation consideration as well. But the Yankees will probably try to get the most out of their massive investment in Sabathia until his contract runs out after next season. This may have grown increasingly frustrating as CC has gone out and delivered more than his fair share of bad starts, but fortunately the numbers show that Sabathia should pitch like someone who deserves to be in a major league rotation. He’s not done yet. He should pitch better down the road and should improve sooner rather than later.
