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Why Gleyber won’t be traded to Colorado

Since the start of the season, Yankees Twitter and Facebook pages have seen posts of fans hoping to send Gleyber Torres to the Rocky Mountains for Trevor Story. Some packages have included Rockies’ pitcher German Marquez while others have seen the Yankees including Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia and high-level prospects. While Story would help lock down shortstop, I just don’t think it would take Gleyber to complete the deal.

Manny Machado Trade

In 2018, the Baltimore Orioles traded their superstar to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Like Story, Machado was in the final year of his contract. However, the only 25-year-old had more home runs, a higher batting average and more Gold Gloves. Machado also had a higher bWar at 31.9 to Story’s 22.9.

To acquire Machado, the Dodgers sent Yusneil Diaz, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer and Zach Pop. Diaz was the keystone of the deal and ranked as baseball’s 52nd top prospect according to MLB.com and 6th in the Dodgers organization. According to Prospects1500, Bannon ranked 37th in the Dodgers organization, Pop ranked 45th and Kremer was unranked.

Francisco Lindor Trade

This past offseason, the Cleveland Indians sent superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets. Meanwhile, the Mets sent Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene. A year younger than Story at 27, Lindor also has a bWar advantage over Story at 28 to 22.9.

Rosario used to be a highly touted prospect (as high as top 5) and Gimenez topped at 60. Meanwhile, Wolf and Greene were not ranked highly in the Mets organization as both are very young.

Both Torres and Rosario were former top prospects that fell on hard times. However, Torres has been a much better MLB player over both their careers. Torres walks more, has a higher batting average, hit more homers and even graded as a higher defender.

Can Trevor be a Story Book Ending?

Trevor Story is a really, really, good baseball player. However, statistically, he has been a bit lower than Machado and Lindor. And while Story has been a better fielder over the course of his career, his defensive metrics are actually about the same as Gleyber so far in 2021.

With his contract set to expire at the end of the year, I just don’t see the asking price being Gleyber Torres. There is a very small chance that Story re-signs and Colorado will likely have to move him at the deadline for any return for starters. The Yankees could probably acquire Story for a group of prospects way lower than an MLB-caliber player.

Does Marquez Make Sense?

German Marquez has had an interesting start to his career. He was brilliant in 2018, dreadful in 2019 before rebounding in the shortened season. His career ERA is 4.21 while averaging just over a strikeout per inning. But what concerns me with Marquez is his high SIERA and Left on Base percentages.

SIERA measures expected ERA when looking at how hard balls have been hit. As we saw yesterday with Stanton, sometimes a ball can be hit well over 100 MPH right at a fielder. While the team will take the out it usually points to the batter having connected with a really dangerous swing. A “great” SIERA is around 3.25 while the average is around 3.90. In 2021, Marquez currently sits at 4.48 and for his career is at 3.88. With that SIERA, Marquez would only rank above Kluber for the 2021 Yankees.

Meanwhile, Marquez is stranding a high 81.5% runners on base. While it’s always good to get out of tough innings, it’s better for those runners to never reach base in the first place. With his metrics showing that he is allowing more runners to reach base (walking 5 per 9 innings) and allowing balls to be harder hit, Marquez could see his numbers absolutely plummet if he doesn’t turn things around soon.

Final Thoughts

I like Trevor Story and would like to see the Yankees make a move. However, Torres or even Deivi shouldn’t be included in that deal. Meanwhile, the Yankees are probably better at passing on Marquez. The last thing the team needs is another pitcher allowing hard-hit balls with runners on base.

If the Yankees do want to move Torres, it should only be a part of a deal that gets them a true Ace pitcher to pair with Cole at the top of the rotation.