Is it a good idea for the Yankees to trade for Mike Trout?
It's the MLB Hot Stove ladies and gentleman! It's the most wonderful time of the year... Earlier this week a story surfaced that the Yankees could (notice the emphasis on the word could) make a trade for Mike Trout. I think this was an example of Sweeney Murti, who's very good, throwing crap against the wall during a slow time of year. The scout he spoke with even said there is no chance the Angels trade Mike Trout for the simple fact that Billy Eppler doesn't want to be the GM who traded Mike Trout. It wouldn't quite be like the two GMs who passed on Michael Jordan, but the pressure on the trade working out for Anaheim would be immense. I played the what-if game anyways.
Trying to come up w/ logical #Yankees - #Angels Trout trade:
Yanks give: Frazier, Rutherford, Kaprielian, Torres or Mateo Yanks get: Trout — Andrew (@Andrew_Rotondi) November 16, 2016
I was shocked at the response I got from Yankees fans on this hypothetical. Nine out of 10 tweets I got called this moronic, saying the Yankees would be mortgaging their future for a win-now move. It was as if I proposed a trade for that dinosaur Miguel Cabrera and not the 25-year old second coming of Mickey Mantle. That's not an exaggeration, by the way.
Mike Trout is the king of bold ink. pic.twitter.com/MVKVVhLAuz — Andrew (@Andrew_Rotondi) November 16, 2016
Trout has yet to play his age-25 season and he has already led the league in runs (4 times), RBIs, stolen bases, walks (2 times), OBP, SLG, OPS+ (3 times), and total bases. He also has 2 MVP trophies, a ROY award, and 3 second-place MVP finishes. Trout could easily be a 5-time MVP winner but some voters still get hung up on that word "valuable." It should just be called The Best Player Award, but that is another rant for another time. The point of this blog isn't to tell you how good Mike Trout is, because that is obvious. I want to address the Yankees fans who would honestly not trade for Trout. First, let's talk about the elephant in these fake trade talks: Gary Sanchez. Any discussion between the Yankees and Angels would start, and probably end, with Sanchez. Eppler will ask for the moon for Trout because he is worth it. I do not believe Cashman is willing to part with Sanchez because one, fans would riot, and two, an argument can be made that a catcher with 30-homer power and a rocket launcher for an arm is more valuable than a historically talented center fielder. I disagree with that notion, but I'll let it slide for now. Moving on from Sanchez, the Angels would ask for Clint Frazier and Blake Rutherford, the two top outfield prospects in the Yankees' system, to ensure proper replacement for Trout in the future. Top starters James Kaprielian or Justus Sheffield would also be in the deal, as would Jorge Mateo or Gleyber Torres, the top infielders in the Yanks system. Perhaps a major leaguer like Tyler Austin or Rob Refsnyder would be tossed in to soften the blow to the Angels 2017 roster, but that is not a big deal when you are talking about a Mack Truck-sized haul like this would be. It would be the blockbuster of the decade, but it would not mortgage the future because the Yankees would be receiving the future in return.
@Andrew_Rotondi I get that. I just don't think we're a Mike Trout away from being contenders. Rather keep the youngsters & wait till 2018.
— Chris Potts (@ChrisPottsNY) November 16, 2016
Had Chris said the Yankees are more than Mike Trout away from winning a World Series, then I'd agree with him. But from being contenders? They "contended" last season, even after they traded Miller, Chapman, and Beltran. The Yankees would not only have contended with Trout, they would have actually made the postseason. Here's a little math equation to prove it: Mike Trout's WAR in 2016 was 10.6, the highest in baseball by a full win over Mookie Betts. For a little context, NL MVP Kris Bryant's WAR was 7.7. Jacoby Ellsbury's WAR last year was 2.8 and Brett Gardner's was 3.4. If the Yankees trade for Trout then one of those two players will no longer be on the roster. For this theorem, let's assume Gardner is gone. Subtract his 3.4 wins but add Trout's 10.6 and you get +7.2. Still with me? The Yankees won 84 games in 2016 and finished in 4th place. If you add the 7 wins from Trout (rounding down so nobody can accuse me of cheating) that brings the Yankees 2016 season win total to... wait for it... 91! 91 wins would have hosted the Wild Card game against either Toronto or Baltimore. Sorry for that brain-buster, but I hope you followed along at home.
Trout, coupled with 26-year olds Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, 24-year olds Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge, would be a nucleus of young talent on the major league roster that could compete for the next decade. It would not prevent the Yankees from adding free agents, nor would it stop them from continuing to develop their very deep farm system that would be diminished, but not depleted, as a result of the trade. I get the excitement for all the young talent in the Yankees system right now. As fans, we have not had this many players to look forward to since the early-1990s, but need I remind you of the volatility when dealing with prospects? I recall a time in 2007 when the future of the Yankees rotation was Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. Things can change rapidly when dealing with young, unproven players, and if given the opportunity to acquire a sure-thing in exchange for uncertainty, I'll do it a thousand out of a thousand times.