Nova Needs to Rebound
Coming off one of the worst starts of his career, Yankees starter Ivan Nova will be looking to get back on the winning track tonight in Detroit against a potent Tiger lineup and Justin Verlander. On July 31, Nova went five innings while giving up nine runs on 10 hits in an 11-5 Yankees loss. What was even more alarming was that Nova was given a 5-0 lead going into the top of the second, only to give up seven runs. The thing that Nova has been able to do throughout his short career is win. This season, with an ERA of 4.53, Nova has a very respectable record of 10-5. For his career, he is 27-11 in 55 games started. One thing that has set Nova apart from other pitchers has been his ability to get out of tough situations with runners in scoring position.
It seems as if Nova gets tougher and bares down as the situation gets more intense. With bases empty in his career, hitters are batting .282. With RISP, batters are at a .233 average. In those situations with two-outs, opponents are hitting an anemic .185. With bases loaded, batters are hitting .130. These decreasing averages in tough situations tell you that Nova reaches down for something more and finds a way to get guys out when it matters most. In the first half of 2012, Nova was masterful at stranding runners. According to ESPN Stats and Info, in the first half this year Nova held opponents to a .193 average with RISP. His strikeout rate was at 27 percent, walk rate at 8 percent and batters swung and missed at 24 percent.
The second-half has been a completely different story, as Nova hasn't won a game since July 8. Opponents are hitting a robust .308 with RISP, striking out nine percent of the time, walking at a 15 percent rate and swinging and missing just 11 percent of the time. Although Nova has reached a pitchers count more times than not (68 percent of the time up from 58 percent in the first-half) he hasn't been able to finish hitters off. Since he can't put hitters away, he's leaving pitches near the plate and they're getting hit, which explains why he hasn't been as successful with RISP. Also, by not being able to strike guys out, his walk rate is up, and there or more runners on base and more chances for the opponent to cash in. He has more walks (5) than strikeouts (3) in at bats with RISP after the break.
Nova hasn't had much success against the Tigers in his career in the regular season. In two games (one start) he's given up 13 hits and six runs in 7.1 innings, good for a 7.36 ERA. Nova has never started at Comerica Park. Tonight, the Yankees hope Nova can begin a new win streak for them. If Nova has two strikes on a batter, look to see if he can finish them off in a short amount of pitches. If he can, he should be on his game. If not, look for the trend of RISP failure to continue.