What's Next for Nathan Eovaldi?
Now that the dust has settled on Alex Rodriguez' departure from the Yankees, we saw Aaron Judge's electric debut, and marveled over Gary Sanchez doing his best Johnny Bench impression, it's time to revisit a story that kind of got swept under the rug. When Nathan Eovaldi went on the disabled list earlier this month with elbow soreness, the same injury that ended his 2015 season in early September, you knew it was bad news. A few days after being placed on the DL it was announced that Eovaldi would need Tommy John Surgery (the second of his career) and a second surgery to fix his flexor tendon, which tore off the bone (sorry for the graphic image). Eovaldi suffered these injuries leading up to his start on August 10 in Boston. He left that game after the first inning, yet somehow finished the inning in Terminator-like fashion -- but you knew something was wrong since his fastball was clocked at about 6-mph below his average. Ironically, I remember thinking during the inning that Eovaldi was evolving as a pitcher. Rather than trying to overpower hitters with high heat, he was locating a sufficient 92-mph fastball. The results in that one inning were good; he got 3 soft outs on 12 pitches (a 108-pitch pace over 9 innings -- a total he usually eclipsed in the 6th inning, if he made it that far).
Full disclosure: I have never been the biggest Nathan Eovaldi fan. Despite his 14-3 record in 2015, I was largely unimpressed with the 5-inning starts that became commonplace when Nasty Nate took the mound. The most infuriating part of watching Eovaldi pitch was having to hear people talk about his stuff, as if that was the be-all and end-all when evaluating his performance. Nate obviously has talent -- as I mentioned earlier, his fastball was usually in the upper-90s and sometimes cracked 100-mph. He often mixed-in a slider and developed a split-finger fastball last season which, through May of this year, was actually a difference maker for him. Even with the improvements you could not count on Eovaldi for much more than 5 innings. In his starts the bullpen would have to get 9-plus outs, which it usually did, hence his 21-6 record with the Yankees through May 2016. Hidden in that record, though, is the 298 hits he gave up in 279 innings of work, his 4.45 ERA, and the .305 BA-against he allowed with runners in scoring position.
All of that is now moot for the Yankees and Eovaldi, who just underwent surgery. He has a 12-18 month rehab ahead of him. Twelve months -- an aggressive, best-case scenario -- means Nathan won't pitch again until this time next year, and it may not even be with the Yankees. This was Eovaldi's last year of team control. If the Yankees ponied up in arbitration it would have made 2017 his walk year (and we know how players seem to rise to the occasion in a free agent year). Now Eovaldi is staring down the barrel of a non-tender offer from the Yankees, which he can either accept or decline, the later of which would make him an unrestricted free agent. If we see Eovaldi at all in 2017, for any team, it will be out of the bullpen where he actually performed well this season. After being demoted in June, he only allowed 3 hits and no runs in 7.2 innings of relief. His success in the bullpen, which to my knowledge had no impact on his injuries, could have actually been predicted because of his above average fastball. The Yankees moved him back into the rotation later in July however because of their inability to find a suitable replacement, not to mention they had Close BMC still manning the end of ballgames. The more likely scenario is that Eovaldi's rehab takes closer to 18 months and he misses the entire 2017 season. It's horrible timing for Eovaldi, who will miss-out on the opportunity for teams to out-bid one another for him, and for the Yankees, who will not reap the benefits of a pitcher who can smell free agency.
#Yankees like Eovaldi's work ethic/makeup, so I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to keep/rehab/and try to get benefits in '18.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) August 16, 2016
My guess, like Sherman's, is the Yankees will non-tender him and Eovaldi will resign with the Yankees, where he seems to have enjoyed his time. He has expressed his devastation at the prospect of missing more than a year of baseball, and has said he will do everything in his power to return to the mound next season. I do not see any team investing much in Eovaldi's rehab, who now has two Tommy John Surgeries under his belt, which makes the Yankees the logical choice for the pitcher.