Evaluating Yankees trade ideas

We all want DJ LeMahieu back. We all also want some good starting pitching. It seems unreasonable to pay Trevor Bauer boatloads of money for one good year against the relatively weak AL Central and NL Central. Besides 2018, Bauer’s ERA had always been north of 4 before 2020. There are some other fliers on the free-agent market, for example, Jake Odorizzi. But there are no true difference makers outside of Bauer, especially considering that Charlie Morton, Mike Minor, and Kevin Gausman are off the market. There’s always the chance that they bring back Masahiro Tanaka, but even then it would be only him and Gerrit Cole in the rotation who have ever pitched more than one full season in the bigs. 

That leads us to the trade market. The White Sox just acquired Lance Lynn on Monday, so he’s off the list. I’m sure we all have PTSD when it comes to Sonny Gray, so he’s not the answer either. So I decided to go to the trade boards at Baseball Trade Values to evaluate people’s trade proposals to get us some starting pitching.

Proposal No. 1

Yankees get: 1B Josh Bell, P Jameson Taillon (total value: 20.30)

Pirates get: 1B Mike Ford, P Luis Gil (Yankees’ #5 prospect), SS Oswald Peraza (Yankees’ #4 prospect) (total value: 21.80)

There have been rumors that the Yankees have discussed Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon with the Pirates. Bell was an All-Star as recently as 2019 but struggled in 2020. However, he did have some promising other stats:

Exit Velocity Percentile	Hard Hit % Percentile	Barrel Percentile	BB % Percentile
87	69	55	61

He is a switch-hitter, so that would add some balance to the lineup. But he whiffs a lot (12th percentile in 2020), and that’s probably not a welcome sight to Yankees fans. Additionally, in this scenario the Yankees would still have Luke Voit, so either they trade him or have Bell be the DH, which is not the best scenario for this team with Giancarlo Stanton here. 

Taillon did not pitch in 2020 since he underwent UCL surgery in August. In 2019, he posted a 4.10 ERA in seven starts, but he was excellent in 2018 with a 3.20 ERA over 191.0 innings. He is someone who ranks above average in terms of velocity and spin, so he could be a nice piece to the rotation. 

The Yankees would have to give up Mike Ford, which is not too bad. However, they would also have to give up their fourth- and fifth-ranked prospects per MLB.com in Peraza and Gil. But you can’t be prospect-hugging when your window to win is right now. 

Taillon is under contract for the next two years as will Bell. Both will be owed around $6 million in 2021, so they definitely won’t break the bank. I would definitely consider this deal, but the one thing that has me a bit worried is the redundancy in Bell’s hitting style. 

Proposal No. 2

Yankees get: P Aaron Civale (total value: 20.20)

Indians get: 1B Luke Voit, CF Raimfer Salinas (total value: 20.40) 

Aaron Civale will turn 26 next year and won’t be a free agent until 2026. He wasn’t great in 2020 with a 4.74 ERA in 12 starts, but his xERA was better at 4.39. Nonetheless, his exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, walk percentage, and spin rates were all above average. He was very good in his rookie year in 2019, making 10 starts and pitching to a 2.34 ERA (3.32 xERA). He has the chance to be a solid pitcher and is under control for several more years. 

As great as Voit has been, this might be something Brian Cashman seriously takes a look at. How about Raimfer Salinas? He is 19 years old and in rookie ball, yet he signed back in 2017 and was considered one of the top hauls of that signing class. While he is not in the Yankees’ top 30 yet, he apparently has good tools across the board. Again, we shouldn’t prospect hug. He is only 19, so who knows how the next few years will play out. 

Maybe the Yankees pull the trigger on this trade and proposal #1 and end up with two relatively cheap starters?

Proposal No. 3

Yankees get: SS Javier Baez, P Yu Darvish, P Kyle Hendricks, RF Jason Heyward (total value: 14.90)

Cubs get: P Domingo German, P Chad Green, C Gary Sanchez, OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton, SS Gleyber Torres (total value: 14.00)

I decided to end on a crazy one.

This one of course had many dislikes. There’s no way this trade ever goes down. While the Yankees would get two starting pitchers and not give up any (assuming Domingo German is not in the rotation), they are giving up a lot. The reason the values match up is that Stanton has a value of -129.5 due to his contract. I’m also not comfortable with Hendricks and his fastball. Sure, he’s made it work, but it is ranked in the third percentile in the league, and his fastball spin is in the first percentile. Even though he only throws his fastball around 20 percent of the time, if you combine it with his sinker it goes up to about 55-60 percent. I just don’t think 87 MPH fastballs will cut it for me.

Obviously, that is not the only problem here. The Cubs would have to accept German. The Yankees would be weakening their bullpen, giving up on Sanchez, and swapping a young, controllable Torres for any older Baez. Sure, Baez’s defense is better, but that factor alone is not enough. Additionally, in terms of average annual value, the Yankees would be taken on almost double the amount if no money was exchanged (about $80.5 million versus about $41 million). 

Clearly, this is a bad trade. But I thought I would end on an absurd one.