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How good (or bad) were our free agent predictions?

It’s time to revisit our free agent predictions. Things were a little delayed because of the lockout, but finally, all the free agents we made picks for have signed. And I can tell you that the results are as bad as the perception of the Yankees’ offseason. Without further ado, here’s how we did:
Overall, we performed quite terribly. As a group, we were 3-for-120. That equates to a .025 batting average. Now, of course, this free agency was unlike most others. Plus, there were a lot of signings that not many people thought of before the lockout. For example, Carlos Correa to the Twins or Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers.
Some final notes:
  • No one got more than one correct.
  • Two people correctly guessed Kevin Gausman’s destination.
  • Many people expected the Yankees to get one of Correa and Corey Seager (of course we got neither).
  • Most people rightfully expected Freeman to go back to the Braves.
  • Overall, most people expected a bunch of players to return to their 2021 teams. For example, Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, Max Scherzer, and Marcus Stroman. In fact, none of these 15 free agents went back to the same team.
  • The BP team went 15/140 (.107) with the 2019-2020 free agents and 43/144 (.299) with the 2020-2021 free agents, so this year represents quite a regression. I liken it to Gary Sanchez’s 2016 and 2017 seasons followed by his 2018 season. Or Gleyber Torres’ 2018 and 2019 seasons followed by his 2020 season. The point is you could probably apply a handful of Yankees’ recent careers to our performances. Hopefully we have a bounce-back effort next year!