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What if the Yankees get outbid for DJ LeMahieu?

Let me be the first to tell you — if DJ LeMahieu is available for a reasonable price tag, he should be re-signed. But as reports surface that he’s asking for J.D. Martinez numbers (five years, $110 million), that he’s frustrated with the Yankees, and that Brian Cashman is working on an extreme budget, I find it far from a guarantee that LeMahieu comes back to the Bronx. So what if he doesn’t?

If we lose out to LeMahieu, it’ll most likely be due to another team offering him a very generous contract, a contract that the Yankees are not willing to match. If this does happen then I don’t see this being the worst thing in the world. I wouldn’t be comfortable paying him at that rate for multiple seasons out of his prime anyway. I still believe LeMahieu will be a hell of a player the next couple of years, but there is always the possibility of him falling off and peaking much sooner than expected. Let me explain.

The Angels and Albert Pujols are a very similar situation. Although more of a power hitter, the first baseman was hands down the best overall hitter in the game and looked unstoppable with the Cardinals. In his 11 years in St. Louis, he was top five in MVP 10 out of those 11 years. With no signs of slowing down, the Angels signed him to a backloaded contract of 10 years/$240 million after his age 31 season (same age as LeMahieu). Almost instantly his production plummeted. There is a considerable difference in his production at age 27-31 compared to ages 32-36.

Age 27-31 Stats (turn mobile device to landscape)

Year Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2007-2011 STL 772 3371 2823 543 914 195 3 195 571 48 18 482 310 .324 .423 .602 1.025 172 1700 118 29 0 37 153
Average 154 674 565 109 183 39 1 39 114 10 4 96 62 340 24 6 0 7 31
per 162 games 163 708 593 115 192 41 1 41 120 11 4 102 66 358 25 7 0 8 33

Age 32-36 Stats:

Year
Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2012-2016 LAA 721 3119 2826 379 752 147 1 146 488 23 6 239 349 .266 .325 .474 .799 123 1339 104 23 0 31 51
Average 144 624 565 76 150 29 0 29 98 5 1 48 70 268 21 5 0 6 10
per 162 games 163 702 636 86 170 34 1 33 110 6 2 54 79 302 24 6 0 7 12

With every season, you can see Pujols’ production decrease. In his nine years with the Angels he hasn’t even been close to an MVP caliber player, earning only ONE all star appearance. With the exception of 2012, Pujols was never worth $25 million-plus during any season in Anaheim.

Although this is just an example, signing a player through his age 32-36 always holds this risk — a risk that may not be worth taking. With Aaron Judge’s payday approaching, along with the large contracts of Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees cannot afford to be paying DJ LeMahieu big numbers if he becomes a shadow of himself.

With all that being said, I think the Yankees need to stay firm on whatever they feel is a comfortable contract length. And if they lose LeMahieu, then they should find a one year rental, with hopes to find their long term solution in a loaded 2021 free agent class.

Respond to the post or tweet me @Nolan_DeMelfi and let me know what the Yankees should do? Should the Yankees give DJ a blank check or should they risk being outbid?