The Yankees have improved, but is it a mirage?

April was the worst month of baseball I have ever watched. No really, that is not hyperbole. It was the ugliest, most pitiful stretch of baseball I’ve seen the Yankees play in nearly 25 years of watching the team. They were historically bad and the numbers proved it. In 22 games they put up 74 runs, slightly more than 3 per game. Their team slugging percentage was an embarrassingly low .360. For a while they were leaving countless runners on base, but then even struggled to get runners on base which just compounded the issue. The pitching staff was equally as bad, allowing 104 runs (99 earned) in those 22 games, good enough for a 4.62 team ERA. For the month, the Yankees run differential was -30 and their record was 8-14, but honestly it could have been worse. May has been very, very different. Runs per game (4.4), slugging (.410), and team ERA (3.81) have all improved. Most importantly, the team is 14-10 and have the second best record in the AL since May 6.

Their overall run differential is still negative, but skewed from an awful April. For the month of May their differential is +12. Despite drastic improvements I’m still weary that we are watching a mirage. I think we all knew the team was not as bad as they played in April, but what if they’re not as good as they’ve played in May? If this team is going to compete for the division - which, let me state clearly, I think they can - a few things need to happen 6 is the magic number, but 7 should be the goal. During the Yankees recent 6-game win streak, each starting pitcher went at least 6 innings. With the big 3 in the bullpen, it’s no mystery that 6 innings is the magic number for the starters. But with the names in the Yankees rotation, expecting them to throw 6 innings every time out is unrealistic. Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda have been two of the more unpredictable pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons. Nova, while he’s been good as a starter, can morph from Ivan Nova to Pizza Nova in the blink of an eye. CC Sabathia has far exceeded expectations, but is a risk to return to the DL at any moment. Luis Severino, who is currently on the DL and expected to rehab in Triple-A when he's ready, looked overmatched by big league hitters.

We saw Joe attempt to get Eovaldi through 7 innings on Tuesday, but it didn’t work. Nasty Nate has been one of the better Yankees starters, so he’s a good candidate to take the next step. Pineda, who is an enigma, showed promise last time out vs Oakland. He has the potential to dominate lineups each time out, but I think the Yankees will be happy with just a little more consistency. Tanaka should also be relied upon to give them 7, assuming he gets his full 5-days’ rest (but that is a whole other issue I’ll save for another day). The good news is they don’t all have to continue to throw 6+ innings each time out, but they do need a couple to step-up each time through the rotation – which did not happen in April. The (over)use of BMC. We are roughly 3 weeks into the BMC era and Girardi has been criticized for his use of them numerous times. While I always love a good manager bashing, I think Joe has handled them pretty well considering the circumstances. When Chapman made his debut with the Yankees on May 9, the Yankees were just snapping-out of their catatonic state. Since then the Yankees have not lost a game in which all of the big 3 have appeared in, but they cannot make winning games only when Betances, Miller, and Chapman pitch a habit. This ties into the starters stepping up, but the Yankees have to find ways to win games like they did on Tuesday, when only Betances was needed. If BMC is running on empty come September, we will see this team fall flat like last season. Power bats. Last season Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez combined for 64 home runs; pretty amazing considering Tex missed two months and ARod’s bat went silent in September. The Yankees were a top-ranked offense while both were healthy and producing. If they want to be anything like the offense from April through July of 2015, they need to find power in the middle of the order.

As a team this year, the Yankees third-place hitters have a lineup-low .597 OPS. Their cleanup hitters only have 18 RBIs. Your 3 and 4 hitters are supposed to be your best hitters, yet statistically they have been the Yankees’ worst. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner have been good. Ells’ OBP is over .400 for the month of May and Gardner’s is close to .350. They are the table setters though, and cannot carry an offense. Carlos Beltran has been fantastic and greatly benefited from DH rest, but unless the American League suddenly institutes a second DH position, Beltran is stuck in the field while ARod is playing. I’ve liked what Starlin Castro has given the Yankees this year – an actual second baseman – but his OPS is 220 points lower in May than it was in April. This kind of inconsistency, and some mental lapses, is what Cubs fans call "Starlin being Starlin." Brian McCann can provide pop, but his home/road power splits have me worried that the Yankees have more of a singles hitter whenever they’re not playing at Yankee Stadium. He's great for what he is - a tremendous catcher and leader who provides above-average offense. That brings us back to Tex and ARod. At this point, considering Teixeira is out for at least 3 more games with another neck issue and ARod is just returning from a hamstring injury, the likelihood of both producing like last season is slim. Unless one starts to hit alongside Beltran, the Yankees offense will continue to be sporadic. The team can't keep surviving with 9th-place offense out of the middle of their lineup. When the Yankees opened their brief home series vs Toronto on Tuesday, they also started a stretch of 18 games in 18 days (thanks to that makeup game from an April rainout in Detroit). This 3-week stretch should tell us a lot about the Yankees season. If on June 13 the Yankees are still hovering around .500, or worse, then it might finally be time to listen to Buster Olney and sell big names like Beltran, Miller and McCann. But if this team can continue to build on their successes in May, then we have ourselves a baseball season.