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OpinionPitching StaffStats Breakdown
·15 min read

Yankees starters and TTOP

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Thursday, we took a look at the Times Through the Order Penalty (TTOP) and how it affects starting pitching across the league.  This is a trend that, as we take a look at the Yankees staff, has a significant impact on certain pitchers.  In case you missed it, here is a link to Thursday’s article.

There has been talk across the league, and specifically the Yankees, about the possibility of moving to a 6-man rotation.  We used TTOP  to make the case for a move to a 4-man rotation.  As you will see, TTOP has a definite impact in the performance of three Yankees starters, most notably Nathan Eovaldi, CC Sabathia, and Michael Pineda.  Now, let’s take a look at the numbers of each pitcher and what might could be done to make them more effective.

First up, let’s take a look at Nathan Eovaldi.  Eovaldi just might be the poster child for fitting into the system described in the previous article.  Here are his numbers so far in 2015 according to times through the order, by BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS :

Split BA OBP SLG OPS
1st PA in G, as SP .275 .296 .507 .803
2nd PA in G, as SP .299 .347 .463 .810
3rd PA in G, as SP .378 .442 .444 .887
4th+ PA in G, as SP .500 .667 .500 1.167

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

And by pitch count:

Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Pitch 1-25 .354 .354 .625 .979
Pitch 26-50 .146 .241 .208 .449
Pitch 51-75 .306 .333 .510 .844
Pitch 76-100 .515 .564 .636 1.200
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

As you can see, Eovaldi is off the charts in comparison to the rest of the league by the time opponents see him the third time.  They are hitting him to the tune of .378/.442/.444, which is over 100 points higher in batting average and on base percentage.

Unfortunately, those are not the eye popping numbers to see here.  Look at the splits when Eovaldi gets over 75 pitches in a game.  .515/.564/.636.  Take a deep breath, because those numbers are hard to absorb.  He is turning opposing batters into the greatest hitters of all time with that combination because he is typically approaching 75 pitches when batters see him for the third time.
To put it in perspective, if you took the league leaders in each category of BA, OBP, and SLG, they would have a slash line of .354/.448/.728.  GULP!!!  At that point, that’s essentially like facing Nelson Cruz and Miguel Cabrera each at bat while  you are running out of gas.  Not a formula for success.
The bizarre part is that after Eovaldi settles into a game after the first inning or so, he is as good as it gets.  Opponents are batting well under the league average against him after the first inning.  But, there is a clear line that he crosses in a game where his numbers skyrocket and performance suffers.
Next up, CC Sabathia.  CC has been a work horse for the Yankees since 2009.  Until Masahiro Tanaka’s arrival he was the de facto ace of the staff.  With his diminished fastball as a result of injuries in the past two seasons, CC has been trying to reinvent himself as a pitcher.  Here are his numbers according to times through the order:
Split BA OBP SLG OPS
1st PA in G, as SP .284 .333 .418 .751
2nd PA in G, as SP .281 .310 .438 .747
3rd PA in G, as SP .328 .333 .578 .911
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

And by pitch count:

Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Pitch 1-25 .271 .340 .417 .756
Pitch 26-50 .255 .269 .298 .567
Pitch 51-75 .281 .305 .456 .761
Pitch 76-100 .378 .388 .733 1.121
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

Once again, you see when you combine the third time through the order with a pitch count over 75, the numbers go to the extremes.  CC’s numbers are even more troublesome in a couple of areas.  Not only are opposing batters putting up higher batting averages, but by the time CC’s pitch count gets above 75, opponents are slugging .733 against him.  That’s well over 300 points higher than earlier in the game.  So, not only are opponents hitting for a higher average, but they are doing more damage because their power numbers are spiking as well.

 

Last, a look at Michael Pineda.  Pineda has been the pitching star for the Yankees thus far in 2015, including a record tying 16 strikeout performance earlier this month.  Here are his numbers according to times through the order:
Split BA OBP SLG OPS
1st PA in G, as SP .267 .295 .453 .748
2nd PA in G, as SP .244 .250 .397 .647
3rd PA in G, as SP .314 .315 .471 .786
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

And by pitch count:

Split BA OBP SLG OPS
Pitch 1-25 .228 .241 .439 .680
Pitch 26-50 .268 .288 .411 .699
Pitch 51-75 .345 .345 .509 .854
Pitch 76-100 .255 .268 .418 .686
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

As good as Pineda has been, he is still not immune to TTOP as batters are hitting above league average the third time through and after hit 75th pitch.  His numbers so far in 2015 are not as extreme because he has been getting by with an incredible strikeout to walk ratio of 14.75:1.  It has been working for him, but obviously is not sustainable.  One would expect his numbers to go up as his strikeout numbers came back down to earth.

See also

As you can see, the numbers don’t lie.  There is a definite trend that most pitchers follow as far as times through the order.  That is the basis for using the 4-man rotation.  It would allow a manager to keep fresher arms in the game and utilize them in the most effective way possible.

Some pitchers would seem to defy this penalty.  Clayton Kershaw would be one of the first to come to mind, but if I remember correctly, even he has had issues at times.  The Cardinals had much success the third time through the order against him the past two seasons in the playoffs.

Will there be a team that is innovative enough to buck recent trends and give the 4-man rotation a shot?  Something tells me that we are not far from that happening.  Only time will tell.