Few people know why the 1938 season was just as special as the seasons listed above. On the surface, ’38 doesn’t seem particularly interesting.  The Yankees cruised to the World Series after winning the AL pennant by a comfortable 9.5 games. They went on to club the Cubs in the Fall Classic, outscoring Chicago 22 to 9 in a four game sweep. The ’38 title was the team’s third straight in a run of four consecutive championships that ran from 1936 to 1939. Appearances, however, can be deceiving.

For one man the 1938 season was anything but easy. For one man 1938 was the challenge of a lifetime, and victory was anything but certain. That man was Lou Gehrig. While the Yankees rolled through the regular season, their captain fought against the accumulating effects of ALS, a disease that would eventually claim both his career and his life. In his excellent new book, Last Ride of the Iron Horse, Dan Joseph tells the inspiring story of how Gehrig’s grit and determination helped power the Yankees to their seventh championship.

Lou in the Limelight

In an early chapter of his book, Joseph notes that Gehrig was often overshadowed by flashier teammates. Lou was a tremendous player, but he never garnered the media attention of Ruth and DiMaggio. Thankfully, Last Ride of the Iron Horse shines a spotlight on Gehrig and allows readers to see Lou through new eyes. Joseph dedicates the perfect amount of time to Lou’s backstory. He tells us about Lou’s upbringing, his charming relationship with his mother, and his decision to pursue a career in baseball.

This portion of the book also includes a look at Lou’s happy marriage to Eleanor. Eleanor is proof that behind every great man there is a strong woman. Joseph credits Mrs. Gehrig with broadening her husband’s horizons. She taught him to appreciate the finer things in life. She also pushed him to realize his potential, to stake his claim as one of the greatest baseball players in the world. By giving Gehrig’s personal history the attention it deserves, Joseph makes the rest of the book more meaningful for the reader.

Baseball Begins

After teaching us about the man, Joseph teaches us about the ballplayer. He expertly weaves together the story of Lou’s ’38 season beginning in spring training, when Lou’s power seemed to go missing. Last Ride of the Iron Horse then looks at Lou’s steady decline during the first half of the 1938 campaign. Joseph records the frustration of the fans and of Gehrig himself as the perennial all-star sees his numbers drop well below his career averages. The power of the book is that it makes the reader feel just as disappointed with Lou’s performance as the fans were.

There are highs, though, as well as lows. After taking an in-depth look at Lou’s early struggles, Joseph narrates Gehrig’s revival during the second half of the ’38 season. Joseph keeps us on the edge of our seats as he recalls Lou’s biggest at bats and most exciting plays. He also discusses the possible explanations for Gehrig’s sudden return to form. One of the most interesting theories involves a temporary reversal in his ALS symptoms. Is it possible that the Iron Horse experienced a sudden surge in strength during his blistering August? Joseph looks at the testimony of leading ALS doctors as he skillfully weighs the evidence.

The 1938 World Series is given excellent treatment in the book’s ninth chapter. Joseph goes through the series game by game, providing important details about Lou’s performance and the Yankees’ victories. Thanks to Last Ride of the Iron Horse, I’m now more familiar with the ’38 World Series than I am with any other Fall Classic predating the Torre dynasty.

Additional Highlights

After concluding his coverage of Gehrig’s 1938 season, Joseph dedicates the final two chapters of the book to Lou’s last months. Last Ride of the Iron Horse documents Lou’s willingness to take on a more public role regarding world affairs. The book also provides touching details that pertain to Lou’s work as a civil servant after the end of his baseball career in 1939. And what book on Gehrig would be complete without a discussion of Lou’s Luckiest Man speech? Joseph handles what might be Gehrig’s greatest moment with sensitivity and class.

Last Ride of the Iron Horse also contains some very valuable information on ALS. The nature of the disease is explained clearly, and Joseph even finds time to discuss the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge from a few years back. Besides being a great baseball book, Last Ride of the Iron Horse is valuable as a source for learning a bit more about a deadly disease.

The Verdict

I can gladly recommend Last Ride of the Iron Horse to any Yankee fan or general baseball fan. Lou Gehrig might be the most under-appreciated Yankee legend, and his battle through the 1938 season is undoubtedly his most under-appreciated achievement. Gehrig embodies so much of what is great, not only about baseball, but about the human spirit. If you’re looking for a great book on Lou, look no further.

Last Ride of the Iron Horse is available in print and Kindle formats from Amazon. It can also be purchased on the Sunbury Press website.

Up Next

The book review series resumes in two weeks with a detailed look at Bryan Hoch’s 2018 book, The Baby Bombers: The Inside Story of the Next Yankees Dynasty. 

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Whenever the Yankees make a big deal, the immediate fan reaction goes to “this bum’s overpaid, and he’s blowing up the payroll.” Earlier, Milan wrote about why that won’t be the case for Cole. To further that analysis, I’m going to look at the various projection systems and come up with Gerrit Cole’s estimate worth over the next 9 beautiful seasons that he will call the Bronx home.

ZiPS

ZiPS is short for sZymborski Projection System, named after its founder Dan Szymborski. This system uses “growth and decline curves based on player types to find trends,” and it uses stats from the previous four years. The system develops a projected stat line for the player which is then factored into a wins above replacement (WAR) formula. Then, you multiple the WAR by how much a win is worth for that season.

Szymborski estimates 1 win in 2020 is worth $7.7 million, and until Dan is able to get some sleep, I don’t really know why. But he’s a hell of a lot smarter than I am so I’ll take his word for it. Each year as revenues in baseball increase, the value of 1 win goes up by 5%. I know that all sounds confusing, so let’s look at it in table form.

So from this analysis, it looks like the Yankees overpaid by $24 million, which is $2.7 million per year. But, there are several reasons not to think it’s that simple. First, like I said above, ZiPS uses the past 4 seasons of data. That includes Cole’s last two years with the Pirates before he went to Houston and reinvented himself. This chart shows how he shelved his sinker in favor of the fourseam fastball when he got to Houston:

You can see the clear uptick in fourseam usage starting in 2018, coinciding with the reduced sinker usage. That change has made a huge difference for Cole.

The Astros also unlocked his spin rate potential. This chart shows his spin rate for all his pitches by season:

An increased spin rate for fourseam fastballs and breaking balls is almost always a good thing, and Cole is among the league leaders in spin rate for both of those pitch types. Those changes are what led to Cole transforming into the Cy Young caliber pitcher he is. In the two seasons prior to joining Houston, Cole was worth a combined 5.9 WAR. He surpassed that total in 2018 alone with a 6.0 WAR and destroyed it in 2019 with a 7.4 WAR. ZiPS weights recent seasons more, but it is still using those poor 2016 and 2017 seasons for its calculations which do not reflect who Cole is today with those significant pitch changes.

Oliver Projections

The Oliver projections were created by Brian Cartwright and are often used by MLB.com. This system uses the past 3 seasons (not 4 like ZiPS) as well as age and regression to develop its projections. Their projection is more optimistic for Cole, and believes Cole’s ERA over the next 7 years will go like this:

2020: 2.57
2021: 2.56
2022: 2.59
2023: 2.66
2024: 2.75
2025: 2.82
2026: 2.92

Compare that to ZiPS, which believes Cole’s ERA next year will be 3.11. In the past 7 seasons, no pitcher has had an ERA under 3.00 each year. Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw came the closest, reaching that milestone 6 out of the 7 years. This projection helps show just how good of a pitcher Cole is and that he might just be the best free agent pitcher ever.

Tom Tango converted those projections to WAR so we can calculate monetary value based on the projection.

That looks a lot better! For the last two seasons of the deal, I used the ZiPS WAR projection. Using this model, Cole will be worth $337 million, which is right around where the contract is. So, if Cole lives up to the hype and remains one of the best pitchers in baseball, he will absolutely be worth the contract.

Steamer System

The last system we’re going to take a look at is the Steamer Projections, which FanGraphs updates every day. The way this one works is we have the projection for 2020. For future years, I deducted 0.5 WAR per season which is the estimate of a standard aging curve.

Wow! By this projection, the Yankees will actually come out way ahead. So when that guy (and there’s always that guy) tries to tell you the Yankees buy their championships and overpaid, you can show them the math and prove them wrong.

Conclusions

Whenever we’re talking about projections, it’s important to remember projections are not predictions. Nobody knows what Cole is going to do over the length of his contract. The models take into account Cole’s past performance and the performance of other past pitchers, which is why we can use these numbers with some confidence.

There is inherent variability between the models because they project things differently. The main thing I found here is ZiPS uses the past 4 years of data for a player of Cole’s age whereas Oliver and Steamer use the past 3 years. For most players, more data is better. However, for Cole I have more confidence in the projections that only use the past 3 years to project because of the changes he made 2 years ago in Houston.

Not to mention, this is the New York Yankees we’re talking about. They have by far the highest revenue in baseball – hundreds of millions more than any other team. They are more equipped to have these long term mega contracts than any team in baseball. As someone who has written extensively on their need to flex their financial muscle, I am both relieved and beyond excited they backed up the Brinks truck for Cole.

Any way you look at it, the Yankees got a great pitcher and it’s going to be a lot of fun watching Cole throw this nastiness for the next several years.

Gerrit Cole's Arsenal

4 Pitch Overlay (all from K pitches yesterday).

Red: 100mph Fastball
Green: 90mph back foot Slider
Blue: 84mph Knuckle Curve
Yellow: 88mph Changeup pic.twitter.com/eQJ4MyFixv

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 3, 2019

Check out the newest Cole/Bronx Pinstripes merch below. LET’S GO!

We got our ACE!! LET’S GOOOOOO!!!!!

IT’S A COLE WORLD!! #YANKEES

https://t.co/WSAeeqc3rl pic.twitter.com/0cUfFDsaKW

— Bronx Pinstripes (@BronxPinstripes) December 11, 2019

You can contact Rohan on Twitter @rohanarcot20

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Just spoke to Scott Boras. Asked the agent what helped make Gerrit Cole choose the Yankees and he said, “ Five conversations with Hal Steinbrenner,” and “Andy Pettitte.” Boras was impacted by Hal’s persistence and Cole was influenced by Andy’s stories about pitching in NY.

— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) December 11, 2019

Big Stein Loves Aces

For the last few years, there’s been frustration with Cashman and ownership. Rightfully so too. In 2018, the Yankees were blown out at home by Boston after Luis Severino got knocked around. Then in 2019, we saw the Savages get shut down by the likes of Cole and the Astros. The Yankee pitching last postseason turned out to be statistically better than the Astros but still. Something felt like it was missing.

Now they have that missing piece. (At least you would hope they do.) Cole is the definition of an ace.

At the end of the day, the person we can thank for finishing this masterful Bronx puzzle is none other than Hal Steinbrenner aka Big Stein Jr. We rely on Brian Cashman’s negotiation tactics to lead us to salvation, as we’ve seen with the Luke Voits and Gio Urshelas of the world. But without the money, there are no deals for a Cole. Cashman may have the influence on where the money goes but, for all his wizardry, he doesn’t have the button to let the Steinbrenner money flow.

Now I think we all can agree. We have to get off Mr. Steinbrenner’s back. (Not Hal. Show some respect on the man’s name.)

Mr. Steinbrenner gave the okay for this. He also gave the okay for the Giancarlo Stanton trade, coming off a season when Stanton brutalized NL pitching. Decisions such as these are no small tasks since they come with huge risks. If these guys don’t work out you have a very long albatross on your hands like we saw with Jacoby Ellsbury. That’s okay though, because the reward is being able to live on forever.

Making Up for the Past?

In some ways, the Cole move is an upgrade from some of the moves George Steinbrenner funded in his latter years of controlling the team. Don’t forget, there was that time  Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte were replaced with lackluster arms. On top of this, valuable resources which could have gone into trading for Curt Schilling went into Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Those arms imploded and A-Rod and Sheffield looked anemic against Boston in that horror movie known as the 2004 ALCS.

In the last 4 games of that ALCS, Sheffield hit .059 with a .297 OPS and A-Rod hit .118 with a .580 OPS. Schilling went on to be a hero that series and won two championships in Boston. The Yankees wouldn’t come close to the World Series in 2009 until, you guessed it, they got some arms in CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. (Other moves Mr. Steinbrenner funded.)

For the first time in 20 years the Yankees will have a steady stream of pitching in Cole, Severino, Paxton, and Tanaka. Barring injuries and depending on who the 5th starter is, everyone can be confident that each and every start, the team will have a chance to win. Knock on wood but hopefully there are no more Sonny days on the calendar.

The post Do we refer to Hal Steinbrenner as Mr. Steinbrenner or Big Stein Jr.? appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

If you haven’t heard, the Yankees agreed to a record nine-year, $324 million contract with the right-hander. Most people (read non-Yankees fans) will view it as an overpay. But let me tell you why it’s not.

Projections

Cole is the complete package. He’s durable and intelligent. He embraces analytics. He’s ahead of the curve. This gives the Yankees more hope that he will age gracefully. Take a look at MLB.com’s ERA projections for Cole over the next seven seasons:

2020: 2.57
2021: 2.56
2022: 2.59
2023: 2.66
2024: 2.75
2025: 2.82
2026: 2.92

Similar past contracts

Take a look at Max Scherzer and his contract. In January 2015, he got a seven-year, $210 million deal. He was heading into his age-31 season. Deferrals aside, would anyone say that contract hasn’t been worth it? I view Cole in the same light: someone who takes his craft very seriously, is an absolute bulldog on the mound, and has the knowledge on how to get hitters out no matter what. Plus, he’s younger than Scherzer was. We saw this in Game 3 of the ALCS this past season – Cole by no means had his A-grade stuff, walking five batters. But he still ended up throwing seven shutout innings allowing just four hits! That’s the pitcher we’re getting.

The man has had no major injuries and has relatively low mileage on his arm with 1,195.0 regular season innings pitched in his career. Now, will he be worth $36 million a year when he’s 35, 36, 37 years old? Maybe not.

But let’s look at someone else’s deal, someone a little more closely related to the Yankees fan base. CC Sabathia was the almost the same age (he was 28, Cole is 29) when he signed his deal back in 2008. Going back to innings pitched when they were signed: CC had thrown 1,659.1 regular season innings, almost 500 more than Cole. Now I know CC also has many intangibles – he’s a great team guy and has a great personality. But who’s to say Cole can’t become that. Everyone says he’s a great leader. And how many people would say that CC’s deal wasn’t worth it even though he only won one championship (in his first year nonetheless) and deteriorated for a few years towards the end of his initial contract? Not too many.

So how will we view Cole and his contract is he wins us a ring in 2020 but that’s it? Of course, we would want more, but Cole can cement his legacy in the Bronx.

Conclusion

You’re also taking away the best pitcher in baseball from your main competition: the Astros. How much is that worth? While no one ever really expected Cole to return to Houston, the magnitude of this signing is essentially doubled. At the moment, the Yankees have to be considered the favorites in the American League (if not all of the majors) in 2020.

I wrote a few weeks back about how the Yankees needed to be bold and go for the dagger by signing Cole. He was the one they needed to invest in – not Manny Machado, not Bryce Harper. This is the move we needed to put us over the top, and it has finally come to fruition.

The Yankees are a very smart organization. You better believe they looked into how Cole will age and their plan of attack to retain players such as Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres down the line. While it is a large sum of money, the Yankees can absolutely afford this and was a necessary move that will pay dividends.

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All the focus on Cole doesn’t just affect Didi though. Waiting on Cole could also have an impact on Yankee lifers the likes of Dellin Betances and Brett Gardner. There is a very real possibility the Yankees walk away with neither of them. Imagine a life with no Cole in our stocking and the Gardy parties end? (Nope don’t want to.)

If this ends up happening, fans reserve the right to be angry. As one of the more optimistic folk on the Yankee blogosphere who can spin any team hailing from the Bronx from any year and proclaim them the greatest in existence, even I’ll admit I’d be angry.

An unsure situation

Obviously baseball isn’t played on paper. It’s played on the field and the team could go into the season without these guys and still bring back title 28. Still, right now as we all wait out the winter months and hope to thaw out before opening day, the frustration would be there if the Yankees miss out on everyone. Us being unsure about what could happen next October will be there as well. Another potential early exit could be waiting too.

Of course the Yankees could also find themselves in an early exit with Cole (obviously) and that bears repeating because, like John Sterling says, “That’s baseball Suzyn.” Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenner family can’t think that way though.

If you’re going to miss out on staples of the team, come October at least have that number one guy be the anchor that we haven’t seen since CC Sabathia in his prime and Roger Clemens of the late 90’s and early 2000’s. The fact is, a number one starter has been sparse in the last 20 years, and it’s no shock that the team has won one World Series since 2000.

Fangraphs Party

Coming into the season, the 2020 New York Yankees could have a stacked rotation with Gerrit Cole. Look at some of these Fangraphs steamer predictions for the potential rotation with him.

Gerrit Cole (Potentially): 6.7 fWAR
Luis Severino: 3.8 fWAR
James Paxton: 4.1 fWAR
Masahiro Tanaka: 2.5 fWAR
JA Happ: 1.7 fWAR

A projected 18.8 fWAR for a rotation is the kind of savagery Boonie screamed about when he got in an ump’s face. Except this time, the savages are in the rotation and not just the box.

Does it sting that Didi went to Philly? Absolutely, because good men shouldn’t have to go to the Land of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles statues.

Would it sting if Gardner ended up lacing up his boots with the Cubs? Absolutely, because they can’t even appreciate a world championship so how can they fully appreciate a Gardy Party?

Would it be a kick in the gut if Dellin Betances goes to the Mets? (I don’t want to talk about it.)

The only thing that makes all these instances okay (somewhat) is bringing Gerrit Cole to the Bronx.  That brings us back to the days of a young CC and the days of Clemens and Cone. If they can’t make it happen though, well, a lot of us will be really mad online. We’ll continue being really mad until they shove chicken fingers and bobble heads down our throats.

Then we’ll believe again – believe up until we see our playoff rotation and we all try to rationalize that the Yankees are good enough to win. Maybe let’s try something different?

The post Losing out on Cole, Betances and Gardner would be a bad look appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

Somehow people will be mad if the Yankees got Corey Kluber instead of Gerrit Cole and while Cole looks better on paper, games aren’t played on paper

Look. If I’m playing fantasy baseball and have the choice between Cole and Kluber, I am obviously getting Cole. Here’s the thing. If Cole leaves the board before I can get to him and I have a shot at Kluber, it isn’t exactly settling.

To say getting Kluber is settling is like living in the universe where Justin Verlander didn’t end up marrying Kate Upton but instead he ended up with Katie Holmes. It’s true that Kate and Cole are the fun new things right now, but that doesn’t diminish what Katie and Kluber have done in the past.

Katie Holmes dated Batman so she PROBABLY wouldn’t want a guy who cheats and can’t buy a W in the World Series for his life. Now that is settling.

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The Torre teams of the late 1990s, for so many of us, represent our great Yankees. Those are the teams that we watched raise the World Series trophy time and time again. Those are the teams that we celebrated, that we idolized, and that we will always remember with a special reverence. Those were our Yankees. They were, as we well know, Joe Torre’s Yankees too. With the help of the excellent Tom Verducci, Torre gives us an inside look at those outstanding teams in his 2009 book, The Yankee Years.

The Wrong Man for the Job

Torre and Verducci open The Yankee Years by discussing a simple fact: Joe was not the person that New Yorkers wanted at the helm following the end of the Buck Showalter era. When we look back on the success that Torre had in pinstripes, we forget that he once had a troubling baseball résumé. As a player, Torre was a multi-time All-Star and a National League MVP. Yet he had never appeared in a World Series as either a player or as a manager. His previous stint in the Big Apple as the manager of the Mets had ended with his termination in the early ’80s.

The first pages of The Yankee Years explain how Torre fought to win Yankee leadership over to his side. Torre and Verducci discuss Joe’s connection with George Steinbrenner, an owner who was known for his lack of trust in previous Yankee skippers. Torre’s inner confidence and quiet positivity ended up proving to be an excellent match for the Boss’s fiery personality. Amazingly, Torre tamed Steinbrenner and earned the trust of the entire Yankee organization in the process.

The Good, the Bad, and the Midges

After discussing Torre’s early struggles with the front office and the media, the narrative rockets right into the baseball action. Torre and Verducci recall major moments from the ’96, ’98, ’99, and 2000 championship runs. They shine a spotlight on the way that the teams were built (starting pitching was critical to the Torre formula). They also comment on the all-or-nothing mentality that gave the team its competitive edge (David Cone looms large as a leader in the locker room).

The authors are quick to point out that the Torre Yankees won rings by playing as a team. Torre and Verducci frequently remind the reader that gaudy numbers and eye-popping individual statistics were not the secret sauce in the championship recipe. Instead, they see situational hitting and a commitment to executing the little things as the keys to the Yankees’ success.

Unfortunately, the second half of Torre’s tenure with the Yankees was not as successful as the first. Torre and Verducci detail the gradual transition from the late-90s dynasty to the disappointing campaigns of the 2000s. Joe’s insights regarding the evolution of the locker room and the impact of that evolution on the Yankees’ fortunes are eye-opening. A plague of annoying bugs in Cleveland, the authors note, certainly didn’t help things. This section of the book was far and away my favorite. It is here that Torre is at his most candid, and his thoughts on the Yankees’ decline are fascinating. Knowing where the 2000s Yankees fell short provides greater insight into what allowed them to succeed in Torre’s early years.

Torre on the Times

The Yankee Years is notable, not only for its coverage of the teams Torre managed, but also for its treatment of other interesting baseball topics. Torre and Verducci discuss the impact that analytics made on roster construction during the early 2000s. They discuss the role that newer, smarter approaches to baseball had in catapulting other organizations ahead of the Yankees. The authors also cover the rise in steroid usage and its general impact on Major League Baseball. As noted above, The Yankee Years also gives us a detailed look at Torre’s relationship with the Steinbrenner family.

Another particularly interesting aspect of the book is the authors’ treatment of Alex Rodriguez. There are some funny stories (one involving the lengths to which A-Rod would go to wear the same jeans as Derek Jeter), but the bulk of the Alex chapter addresses Rodriguez’s approach to the game and how his mentality was different than Torre’s. It is evident that Joe has a soft spot for Alex. Nevertheless, Torre does seem to heap higher praise on team-first players like Jeter, O’Neill, and Cone.

The Verdict

This is absolutely a book that I would recommend. The Yankee Years allows fans to go back in time and take a much closer look at one of the most important periods in Yankees history. The championships of the late 1990s cemented the Bronx Bombers as, not only the team of the decade, but also as the team of the century. It is an excellent read for anybody interested in the major Yankee personalities of the 1990s and 2000s. Derek Jeter, David Cone, George Steinbrenner, Brian Cashman, Roger Clemens and many others are excellently covered throughout the book. If you only read one book on the Torre dynasty, make it this one.

The Yankee Years is available in print, digital, and audible formats.

Up Next

On December 13 we’ll continue our book review series with a look at Dan Joseph’s 2019 book, Last Ride of the Iron Horse: How Lou Gehrig Fought ALS to Play One Final Championship Season.

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The results are absolute insanity, which break down into barbaric Twitter spats as if we’re talking about Medicare for All or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Just look at the comments section of each of these posts when I did it.

“Derek Jeter wasn’t a good shortstop.” pic.twitter.com/jWatNFnISz

— Joe (Bronx Pinstripes crew) (@deflategator) November 22, 2019

“The flip play was one play. Derek Jeter never did anything close to that again. Face it he was a bad defensive player.” pic.twitter.com/s9mtcZw70g

— Joe (Bronx Pinstripes crew) (@deflategator) November 25, 2019

This was half troll, half me putting my flag down in the Jeter’s-Defense-Doesn’t-Matter camp. This isn’t because my heart is devoted to Jeter, though. If I can be completely honest, Derek Jeter isn’t my favorite baseball player of all-time – though, if he is for you, that’s a very good favorite to have. (I am a complete weirdo and on my personal list Andy Pettitte and El Duque rank higher.) Even still, my personal tastes do not get in the way of recognizing just how important Derek Jeter was to the Yankees and New York in general.

If you don’t think Derek Jeter is important then you haven’t been paying attention. Jeter has been injected in every aspect of New York sports culture – or just culture in general considering he hosted SNL. Just look at some of the narratives we’ve heard over the years in the Kingdom of Flushing.

Here are headlines where, for whatever reason, writers covering the Mets felt the need to compare very good athletes on their end to the captain:

Forbes: Jose Reyes Could Have Been Better Than Derek Jeter

New York Daily News: Decline of Yankees’ Derek Jeter, rise of Mets’ Jose Reyes are in stark contrast this season

Metsmerized Online: What Do The Stats Tell Us About A Wright and Jeter Comparison?

ESPN: David Wright is no Derek Jeter … or is he?

They even did it in Milwaukee

Madison.com: Cory Jennerjohn: Ryan Braun could’ve been Derek Jeter

Then there was this one from Boston even comparing plays by Pedroia and Jeter

NBC Sports Boston: Who wore it better? Jeter’s flip or Pedroia’s?

So why are these comparisons important in all this? On the outset comparing David Wright, Jose Reyes, Ryan Braun or Dustin Pedroia are meant to stir up debate. This is what all of these publications are really saying though:

“Derek Jeter is the gold standard and we pray to the baseball gods that maybe our guys can touch upon his greatness.”

There’s a reason why nobody in Milwaukee is writing articles about why Braun isn’t the next Pedroia, Reyes or Wright. As elite as they all were in their primes, none defined excellence better than Jeter in our lifetime.

THE METRICS

It’s true that Derek Jeter’s defensive metrics are not great. Here is where he stands over the years”

2002 – 2014: 23225.2 Innings at Shortstop with a -152 Defensive Runs Saved

It’s not great by any means. Even still, does it really need to dominate the conversation the way it has? 3000 hits, a career .300 hitter, an OPS over .800 from 1995 to 2014 and an accumulative fWAR of 73 and still, I’ve heard more about Jeter’s range in Twitter debates than any of this.

Think about other Hall of Famers in sports with flaws. Brett Favre is in Canton, but do we talk about his interceptions? Favre led the league in picks three times and finished with a total of 336. That is barely ever brought up with him though and it certainly wasn’t mentioned much in the conversation surrounding his Hall of Fame legitimacy. Favre was great and that was all that mattered. When the picks were mentioned, they certainly weren’t spoken of with the vitriol that surrounds Jeter’s glove.

In terms of ability, a player similar to Derek Jeter who was inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2015 is Craig Biggio. Just like Jeter, after a long career Biggio amassed 3,000 hits. His crutch was also defense. Biggio was a negative defender at second base to the point where he was moved to the outfield. (Something that would have happened to Jeter if he didn’t fight it.) In the outfield Biggio was also a negative defender.

Still, with Biggio, when we think of him, we think of the fact that he was able to slap a ball to any side of the field coming out of the womb. Defense was never a thing.

How about Mike Piazza – another staple of New York baseball in the 90’s. Mike was a bad defensive catcher and was so bad, at one point he was moved to first base. Defense doesn’t surround his narrative either. Just that he was a masher – and at the end of the day all that matters are the things that made our heroes great.

TO BE SHOCKING

Before podcasts or any political correctness movements, there were radio shock jocks. You had your Opie and Anthonys and your Howard Sterns. These guys were nationally syndicated broadcasters who made their bones by just saying the most ridiculous and shocking things. I grew up on both of these shows and was even able to Intern for Opie & Anthony back in 2010.

I’ve gotten a good gauge on pinpointing what’s actually coming from somebody’s heart and what is just a statement made for shock value, and these Derek Jeter defense truthers are essentially just sports shock jocks. The statements made by them are just here to incite riots and for the most part, they don’t even believe what they say.

I already know this is the case when you don’t see conversations about interceptions with Favre, or defense with Biggio and Piazza. These points never come up but it doesn’t exactly spark intense debate.

Look I get it. It’s fun to tear down greatness. I did it all year by showing the side-by-side stats of Gio Urshela compared to Manny Machado or Mike Tauchman and Bryce Harper. Harper and Machado are bonafide superstars that 32 out of 32 teams in the league would happily embrace on their team.

For as great as Tauchman and Urshela were for the Yankees, it will be quite shocking if they keep up their 2019 paces five years from now or even a year from now. Maybe they’ll be the Yankee versions of Justin Turner but man, baseball is so damn hard. You just can’t bank on consistency.

Here’s the thing. When I do it I’ll at least admit what I’m doing is partially in jest. It’s just fun being annoying to other fan bases. I don’t actually mean it.

This is why when I see somebody go off about Jeter’s “range” or that any good shortstop could pull off the flip play, I laugh. It’s like: “Ahhh… Cool gimmick bro. Please go on.” It must be fun to be the wrestling character whose whole schtick is to have bad sports takes.

The post Let’s all pretend to care about Derek Jeter’s defensive metrics appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

In the winter of 2010, Lee was finally a free agent after torturing the Yankees. He dominated the Yankees in the playoffs with the Phillies in 2009, and then again with the Rangers in 2010. The Phillies had shockingly traded Lee to the Mariners after the 2009 season for no reason whatsoever. After that, the Mariners traded Lee to the Rangers at the 2010 deadline. Lee had thus played for three teams over a 12 month span, and conventional wisdom said the Arkansas native would return to the Rangers or sign with the Yankees.

Back in 2010, top free agents actually signed with teams before Christmas, and every Yankee fan under the sun wanted Lee in their stocking for the 2011 season. The Yankees were coming off a tough ALCS loss to Lee’s Rangers. They were as talented as any team in the league, but pairing Lee with prime CC  would have given them the most devastating one two punch since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.

The Yankees were a loaded team in need of an additional front line starter. Sound familiar?

Lee was 32 at the time, but had remained relatively injury free. He had a smooth, low movement delivery that scouts thought would hold up over time. Because of this, Brian Cashman had no hesitation about offering Lee a six year, $140 million contract taking him through his age 38 season.

It wasn’t enough.

Lee ended up spurning the Yankees and the Rangers and signing with the Phillies, the team that had sent him packing in 2009. It turns out Lee had never wanted to leave Philly. He loved the ballpark, the fans, and the blue collar feel of the city. He also apparently wasn’t overly concerned with money. Lee ended up signing for $115 million, $25 million less than what the Yankees were offering.

$115 million sounds like a ton of money to you and me. It is, but it is almost unheard of for a top free agent to turn down that kind of money. Ninety-five percent of free agents take the highest offer, with Lee being one of the rare exceptions. It probably didn’t help that Yankee fans allegedly spit on Lee’s wife and tried to shower her with beer during the 2010 playoffs when he was pitching for the Rangers. The savages that fill the Yankee Stadium upper deck during playoff games are usually an asset. They weren’t this time.

The Cliff Lee story had a bizarre ending. He dominated in 2011, but lost his only playoff start. He was great in 2012 and 2013, but the team never got back to the playoffs. Lee tore up his elbow in 2014 and just like that, he was done at 35. Lee completed just three-and-a-half years of his five year contract before abruptly retiring.

The parallels between Lee and Gerrit Cole are painfully obvious. The Yankees tried to trade for Lee in 2010. They tried to trade for Cole in 2018. Lee eliminated the Yankees before heading to free agency. Cole did the same about a month ago. In 2011, they needed a second ace to pair with Sabathia. Today, they need a second ace to pair with Luis Severino. Back then, they had a great squad, but Lee would have made them the overwhelming favorite. Today, adding Cole would undoubtedly give the Yankees the most lethal roster in the Majors.

By donning a Boras Corp hat 20 minutes after losing the World Series, Cole seemed to indicate money would be the main factor in his decision.

Conventional wisdom says Cole will either choose his hometown Angels or the deep pocketed Yankees.  But conventional wisdom doesn’t always matter in these situations.

Just ask Cliff Lee.

The post The cautionary tale in Yankees’ pursuit of Gerrit Cole appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

Think of what missing time did for a guy like Craig Kimbrel. Coming into the season Kimbrel had a career 1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP and a .920 WHIP. He entered Wrigley halfway through the year and was a disaster. He sported a 6.53 ERA, 8.00 FIP and 1.597 WHIP.

Didi Gregorius also had his struggles. If you were to tell me that Didi was going to hit 16 home runs and 61 RBIs before the season, well, sign me up. That wasn’t the problem though. The magic of Didi is he always outperforms his normally poor Expected Stats but that magic just was not there this year.

.238 AVG (.268 in 2018)
.276 OBP (.335 in 2018)
.441 SLG (.494 in 2018)
.718 OPS (.829 in 2018)
15.4 K% (12.1 in 2018)
4.9 BB% (8.4 in 2018)

The big difference between Craig Kimbrel’s down year and Didi Gregorius’ is that Kimbrel got paid before he could implode. Didi did not. His down year had the worst timing ever. Now he’s a free agent and the guy once lauded for being Derek Jeter’s replacement might end up playing for less than what he believes he’s worth, and go out for a team that isn’t the Yankees.

Penny Pinching

As the days pass, it feels like the chances of bringing Didi Gregorius back are getting slimmer. Especially when you consider that this is the new era of the Yankees where sometimes coupons and discounts play a part in the process of paying players.

It’s a strange feeling to have in your gut as a fan, to watch a team penny-pinch a staple such as Didi when they are in fact the richest team in Major League Baseball. Here’s what Craig Edwards from Fangraphs said of their value in his November 6th article, The Yankees Don’t Spend Like They Used To:

The Yankees are often known for operating in another financial stratosphere. Forbes put a $4.6 billion valuation on the club, roughly 40% higher than the Los Angeles Dodgers and essentially the same as the White Sox, Mariners, and Blue Jays combined. While the Yankees’ YES Network is valued at around $3.5 billion, 14 other teams’ networks combined recently sold for about one-fifth that cost on a per team basis. Forbes estimates that only two teams (Dodgers and Red Sox) have annual revenues within $200 million of the Yankees.

Didi Gregorius will not be commanding a $100 million contract. Even if he were, when you see Forbes value the Yankees at $4.6 billion and they won’t even offer Didi the $17.5 qualifying offer, that just feels dirty.

That number is pennies compared to the amount of profits the Yankees bring in. If he doesn’t do well, then everyone will get it. He’ll go off to the Reds. The Yankees aren’t the Rays or the Royals though, and that qualifying offer that gives Didi a chance to prove himself wouldn’t choke their bottom line. I get going about business this way for a Manny Machado or a Bryce Harper. Didi though?

No other team can sell an ugly 2 grande Gucci jacket for corny trust fund kids like this. That’s how rich the Yankees are.

To finish off what Edwards wrote about the Yankees and their value:

Financially speaking in baseball, there’s the Yankees up top, then 50 feet of swimming pools full of gold, then there’s everyone else. But lately, when it comes to spending on the major league roster, the Yankees haven’t operated as a behemoth and have instead opted to swim in that gold. Such is their choice.

GLEYBER DAY AT SHORT

Since money is an issue in terms of signing Didi Gregorius, another thing going against him is Gleyber Torres. The 22-year-old phenom is a superstar in the making.

When the Yankees traded for Gleyber Torres, they never could have expected the power numbers. The Cubs probably never saw it coming either when they traded him away for Aroldis Chpaman. His .535 SLG in 2019 is the highest it has ever been in the majors or any of his years in the minors.

Gleyber Torres in 2019:

38 HR
96 RBI
.278 AVG
.337 OBP
.535 SLG
125 wRC+
3.6 fWAR

The offense is a plus, but the main thing that hurts Didi’s chances of coming back is just how much better Gleyber Torres is at short than at second. In 547.1 innings at second, Gleyber had -7 Defensive Runs Saved. At short, he was a positive defender with a 1 DRS in 651.2 innings.

When you add to the fact that DJ had a 5 DRS at second, the Yankees may value a Gleyber/DJ infield over a Didi/Gleyber infield because, if you’re going by what the analytics say, it’s just better. On top of this, it is also cheaper.

Since 2015 Didi’s defense has been up and down. (Statistically that is. I’m still personally skeptical about defensive metrics. Unfortunately they’re just things we’ll have to get used to in baseball.)

2015: 5 DRS, 1330 innings
2016: -9 DRS, 1309.1 innings
2017: 1 DRS, 11742.2 innings
2018: -2 DRS, 1149.1 innings
2019: -6 DRS, 688.1 innings

While our eyes say Didi is an excellent shortstop, it seems the numbers don’t back it up. Then again, the numbers also said Gio Urshela was a bad third basemen, but he did this.

Yankees’ Gio Urshela showin’ off the arm strength pic.twitter.com/MF4EHhEjIX

— ESPN (@espn) July 4, 2019

Maybe this is just a personal bias, but something about not seeing Didi at short after all the years of saying he was the perfect heir to Derek Jeter just feels rotten. You can’t give that “perfect heir” one more shot?

The post Yankees are being cheap if they don’t give Didi a chance to prove himself appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

Adams followed up his 2017 breakout with a mediocre 2018 season that saw him post a 4.78 ERA, 4.87 FIP, and a 4.23 xFIP in 113 Triple-A frames. He also pitched in three major-league games, posting a 7.04 ERA, 8.77 FIP, 6.05 xFIP, and a 6.05 SIERA in 7 2/3 innings.

2019 was just as bad, as Adams posted a 4.63 ERA (5.07 FIP, 5.51 xFIP) in 81 2/3 Triple-A innings and an 8.53 ERA (6.53 FIP, 5.69 xFIP, 4.90 SIERA) in 25 1/3 major-league innings. With one minor-league option remaining, the 25-year-old righty is entering a make-or-break 2020.

Things are different, however, for Adams this upcoming season. He’ll get to work with new Yankees’ pitching coach Matt Blake who is directly responsible for the success of current Indians arms Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and Jefry Rodriguez.

The 33-year-old Blake is regarded as a coach that’s heavily reliant on analytics and a progressive believer in biometrics. The Yankees are hoping that Blake’s analytical and technological approach can help the Yankees’ pitching staff, including Adams.

Someone that Blake has previously worked with that has a similar profile to Adams is Aaron Civale, who I previously mentioned benefited greatly from his work with Blake. Civale made his major-league debut with the Indians in 2019, posting a stellar 2.34 ERA, along with a 3.40 FIP, 4.61 xFIP, and a 4.74 SIERA.

Both Adams and Civale are low-velocity, high-spin-rate right-handers. Adams has 32nd-percentile fastball velocity, 87th-percentile fastball spin, and 94th-percentile breaking ball spin. Civale has 18th-percentile fastball velocity, 85th-percentile fastball spin, and 96th-percentile breaking ball spin.

Something that can’t be a coincidence is that those four pitchers that worked with Blake all had pretty solid breaking balls in 2019. Bieber throws a fantastic slider (1.85 FIP, .242 xwOBA) and knuckle-curve (1.55 FIP, .226 xwOBA), Plesac throws a slider (2.77 FIP, .264 xwOBA) and a curveball (4.65 FIP, .301 xwOBA), Rodriguez throws a curveball (2.84 FIP, .223 xwOBA), and Civale throws a slider (2.76 FIP, .254 xwOBA) and a curveball (2.53 FIP, .210 xwOBA).

Sure, Adams didn’t have the sharpest-looking slider on the surface (6.2% SwStr%, -1.2 pVAL (value of pitch), but the analytics tell a different story, as it had a 0.73 FIP and a .225 xwOBA (.360 wOBA), so a lot of unluckiness went into his slider struggles. However, it doesn’t matter how you look at it, his curveball was horrific (11.18 FIP, .455 xwOBA).

Adams only threw his slider 18% of the time, so maybe Matt Blake has him throw it more. Also, Adams’ slider was his least-barrelled pitch in 2019, only being barrelled 8.3% of the time (66.7% weak contact rate). The Yankees have always loved sliders, so it will be interesting to see if Blake continues that trend during his time in the Bronx.

Civale, who I previously mentioned has a similar fastball spin rate as Adams, was a sinker-heavy (35%) and cutter-heavy (30%) pitcher in 2019. His sinker had a 2.86 FIP and a .272 xwOBA (.256 xwOBA on contact) and his cutter had a 3.88 FIP and a .293 xwOBA.

A huge difference between Civale and Adams is Civale is a ground-ball pitcher (40.5% GB%, 37.4% FB%) and has a 38.4% hard-hit rate, but Adams is a fly-ball pitcher (30.7% GB%, 39.8% FB%). Maybe adding in a cutter can help Adams improve his numbers, as that would help him bring down his fly-ball rate and improve his ground-ball rate. I’d rather him not add a sinker because sinkers are bad.

Adams’ starting pitching career is probably not still in the cards with the Yankees, so a similar role to Luis Cessa might be in order, meaning he’d only need two pitches and a cutter and slider mix would do wonders for Adams. Maybe a tweak in mechanics could also help his command (10.1% BB% between MLB/AAA in 2019)?

I’m just excited to see what Matt Blake can possibly offer Adams. There’s two possible scenarios for Adams: He either improves under Blake’s instruction and becomes an arm of value or he doesn’t and the Yankees decide to cut bait. Hopefully, it’s the former.

The post The Chance Adams reclamation project appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

Andújar to the Braves for Max Fried and Tucker Davidson

That’s an instant “no” from the Braves. Fried posted a 4.02 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, and 3.83 SIERA in 165 2/3 innings in 2019. He’s probably their second-best starting pitcher, behind Mike Soroka. Davidson is a top-20 prospect in the organization and looks to have a really bright future in someone’s rotation, if it’s not the Braves, so that’s just adding more insult to injury.

Andújar to the Angels for Jo Adell

This one has to be a joke. Publishing an article with this mock trade idea is considered slander to a possible future great to me. Adell is a top-5 prospect in all of baseball… 65 FV (future value), according to FanGraphs. The Angels might not even include him in a trade for Mookie Betts, if it came down to that. He posted a 173 wRC+ in 43 games at Double-A in 2019. Adell is only 20 and should be in the Angels’ lineup at some point in 2020. The likelihood of him getting dealt is pretty minuscule, and especially not for an over-performing bat with no defense like Andújar. 

Andújar to the Tigers for Matt Manning

Okay, this is intriguing, but that’s where it stops—at intrigue. Matt Manning is an absolute stud of a pitching prospect in the Tigers’ organization. He’s their No. 2 prospect—behind just Casey Mize—and a top-40 prospect in all of baseball. In 24 starts at Double-A last year, he had a 2.56 ERA, 2.53 FIP, 2.63 xFIP, and a 28.1% strikeout rate. Those are stellar numbers. With a rebuilding team like the Tigers, it doesn’t really make sense to trade top prospects unless the right opportunity presents itself. Yes, they are in dire need of offense, having been the worst offensive team in baseball over the last two seasons (80 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR). However, there still isn’t really a fit even on the Tigers for a guy like Andújar.

Andújar to the Cubs for Kyle Schwarber

This is the one we’re going to concentrate on in this column. I would do backflips and run through the streets naked if this could happen for the Yankees. The Cubs are looking to sell off key position players this offseason to clear future payroll—which leads to Schwarber’s name being back on the trade block for what feels like the 100th year in a row.

Schwarber would be a much better fit in a righty-heavy lineup than a guy like Andújar. Schwarber strikes out quite a bit, and I know a lot of people don’t like strikeouts, but Schwarber has gotten on base at a 34.7% rate over the last two seasons, compared to Andújar’s 31.5% rate.

In 70 second-half games in 2019, Schwarber was absolutely insane at the plate for the Cubs. 20 home runs, 36.6% on-base rate, .404 wOBA, and a fantastic 151 wRC+. Those are beautiful numbers. His 151 wRC+ was better than guys like Xander Bogaerts, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Cody Bellinger, and Nolan Arenado in the second half.

Schwarber is pretty bad in left field, sporting a minus-10 OAA (Outs Above Average) in 2019 and minus-8 OAA in 2018, though Defensive Runs Saved disagrees with those numbers, as he had 2 DRS in 2018 and minus-1 DRS in 2019.

Still, with his offensive numbers, the fact he’s been underperforming his expected stats (.343 wOBA/.350 xwOBA in 2018, .357 wOBA/.375 xwOBA in 2019), and his pull-happy and powerful lefty swing (.375 BA/.481 wOBA on balls pulled), he’d be an excellent fit in a Yankees’ lineup dying for lefty power hitters.

However, if the Yankees wanted to trade for Schwarber, I don’t think Andújar would be the guy they could trade straight-up for him. Sure, Andújar has shown he can be a quality major-league hitter, but players with historically terrible defense aren’t usually fits for National League teams, considering the NL doesn’t have a DH.

Obviously there’s always room for improvement, but for a team that prides itself on solid infield defense, Andújar would be hurting that, even with any improvement from his past failures at third base.

Sure, Andújar’s defense could always improve and if the Cubs decided to trade Kris Bryant, a spot at third base could open up, but the Cubs have better players in their farm system that could fill in at third base or anywhere in the infield for them and those players can actually play major-league defense. Nico Hoerner (117 wRC+ at Double-A, 6.6 UZR/150 at 2B in MLB), Aramis Ademan, Zack Short, and Trent Giambrone (a David Bote type) are better options for the Cubs.

If I were the Yankees, I’d immediately pull the trigger. Just imagine that lefty stroke in Yankee Stadium. It’s orgasmic to just think about.

If I were the Cubs, I would look to trade Schwarber for a better asset, if you’re going to trade him at all.

The post Is a Miguel Andújar, Kyle Schwarber trade a possibility? appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

We’re not sorry for the offense, but you should be. Not at the people exposing the truth, but at the team who let you down.

Their bios? They check out. Their anger? Appropriate. Their defending of the team they love? Understandable.

Does that make them right? Nope. Not even a little bit.

As each day goes by, the Houston Astros are becoming more and more exposed, and the story is getting bigger and bigger. With each new video, post, article or source coming forward with damning info on them, the bigger the defense and denial have gotten from the fans.

Is it every single Astros fan? Of course not. But sadly, the only outspoken, usually irrational ones, are on Twitter, calling evidence, conspiracies, and people digging up said evidence, haters.

I’ve seen more denial from Astros fans than Shaggy. And my advice to you is STOP.

It was you.

Stop defending the Houston Astros. I get it. They are your team. Every fan wants to defend their team. But this is indefensible. The evidence is there. The ex-players are talking. It’s widely known and involved. The Astros have been cheating, and if you deny that and simply yell at the folks exposing it, too, then you’re a part of the problem.

It’s not a good look, it’s not normal, and it is a big deal.

“Other teams do it, too!”

Probably, but until that evidence comes out clear as day as it has for the Astros, it’s the Astros who are guilty, as an entire organization. I’m not saying every Yankee fan if this was switched would be rational. I understand the defiance, but there comes a point where defiance just looks foolish. This isn’t made up or a conspiracy. This is a team that used electronics to take advantage of other teams.

That, troubled fan, is the definition of cheating, the definition of performance enhancement.

See the bigger picture and understand this isn’t good for the game. They need to be punished and there needs to be consequences. If you love the game of baseball, this needs to be cleaned up before things get worse.

Your team cheated. It’s really that simple.

My advice to you is to sit back and accept this … and maybe stay off Twitter for a while. Because this is about to get as ugly as your team’s uniform.

The post Astros fans are having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

Brian Cashman asked if it was more or less likely that Didi Gregorius re-signs the longer he stays on the market: "I can't tell you less likely more likely, I can just tell you a Didi was a great player for us he's a free agent now, so it's gonna be competition for services."

— Brendan Kuty (@BrendanKutyNJ) November 15, 2019

Cashman is usually a master of speaking without saying anything. He also indicates the Yankees are “in” on every Free Agent and trade candidate, and this year is no different. So far this off-season the Yankees have been linked to Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Madison Bumgarner, among others. These comments however are an indicator to me that the Yankees have decided they are moving on from Gregorius.

2019 was a weird year for Didi. He began the season on the IL recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He returned earlier than most predicted, but put up the worst offensive numbers in his Yankees career — 84 wRC+ in 344 PA. Despite the late-season movement among some fans that Didi should sit in the playoffs, most still loved him for his “clutch” postseason homers, postgame emoji tweets, and speedy injury recovery. But the Yankees run a business, and the fact is, re-signing a shortstop to a long term deal who will be on the wrong side of 30 this upcoming February is not good business, especially when they have a more than suitable backup plan of Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu up the middle.

Didi obviously sees the writing on the wall. He commented on this Instagram post from the George’s Box account and then people ran with it. Didi was not happy about that.

pic.twitter.com/uBOETBkWeu

— Sir Didi Gregorius (@DidiG18) November 14, 2019

This just flat out sucks. Logically, I know the Yankees should move on from Didi. A year ago I would have slapped myself across the face for thinking that but I don’t see the value in re-signing him to a long(ish)-term deal. Emotionally, I would love to have Didi back. When Didi replaced Jeter in 2015 I didn’t think he’d last the season. In the first month he made countless mental errors, looked lost against left-handed pitchers, and was basically a slap singles hitter. Fast-forward to the 2017 Wild Card game and I was hugging strangers after he smashed the game-tying home run vs Minnesota. Didi also gave us a tremendous moment in the ALDS this year when he hit a grand slam to the #BPCrew. We’ll always have those moments, but it looks like there will be a new shortstop in the Bronx next season.

Meanwhile, Brian Cashman is sleeping in the cold outside Yankee Stadium.

The post The Yankees relationship with Didi Gregorius is coming to an ugly end appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

For the second time in three years, the Yankees had a special season come to a sobering end at the hands of the Houston Astros. There is something abruptly final about a finished baseball season. We begin watching games in March and April as the last vestiges of the winter months melt away. We sweat under the mid-summer sun at the Stadium as the Yanks grind their way through the dog days of July and August. And, because we’re Yankees fans, we usually get to bundle up in our winter coats to watch the team on dark, chilly October nights in the postseason.

For now, the Yankees’ push for a twenty-eighth world championship is on hold. We won’t have games to watch and analyze until next spring. Yet we need not go without our beloved Bronx Bombers between now and February, when the team arrives in Tampa for spring training. But, there are other sources from which we can get our Yankees fix as well: books.

A quick Amazon search for books on the New York Yankees will turn up over two thousand results. There are books on specific players, seasons, and all aspects of the Yankees organization. Which one should you sit down to read on a snowy December afternoon? Which one should you play through your car’s stereo on the way into work? During the next few months, I’d like to review some of the Yankees books that I love the most. If all goes according to plan, I will have given you some ideas for building your own Bronx Bombers library.

Reviewing 56

The first book that I’d like to put forward for your enjoyment is Kostya Kennedy’s 56: Joe DiMaggio and the Last Magic Number In Sports. Kennedy’s book was released in 2012, and quickly achieved critical acclaim on The New York Times Best Seller list. It isn’t difficult to see why. The rapid pace of 56 transports the reader back to the unforgettable summer of 1941. Kennedy starts things off innocuously enough, recording a forgettable DiMaggio base hit in a gloomy Yankees loss. But DiMaggio hits in the next game, and the next game, and the next game. Soon the country is following the Yankee Clipper as he chases down some of baseball’s most illustrious names in a season for the ages. Thanks to Kennedy’s smooth storytelling, we’re along for the ride.

Highlights from 56 include the controversy at the end of Game 30, when DiMaggio’s sharply hit ball to shortstop could’ve gone down as either a hit or an error. Was the scorekeeper’s call correct? Did DiMaggio’s streak depend on a lucky break? Kennedy explores these questions in his casually gripping manner. He goes on to describe the drama of Game 42, when DiMaggio leapfrogged George Sisler for the longest streak in the live-ball era. You can almost hear the roar of the rabid crowd as the young Yankee superstar makes history.

Kennedy also manages to delight in his treatment of subjects beyond baseball. For instance, he does an exceptional job of exploring DiMaggio’s personal history. We learn about the way DiMaggio helped his parents and siblings back in California after making it big. We also gain a bit of insight into the Yankee Clipper’s signature stoic demeanor. Lou Gehrig’s death in 1941 and his friendship with DiMaggio are powerfully treated in an early chapter. Kennedy even looks at how DiMaggio’s run at history kept Americans together during the dark days of the early 1940s. During the streak, the United States stood on the precipice of World War II. DiMaggio’s incredible ’41 campaign allowed an entire country to enjoy one last magical summer.

The final chapter of 56 will be especially enjoyable for analytics nerds. In it, Kennedy takes a deep dive into some of the numbers behind DiMaggio’s unmatched feat. As an example, he discusses probability models that have been built to determine the likelihood of the record being broken (the chances aren’t very good!). Kennedy also comments on whether or not advanced metrics can properly account for a player’s ability to “get hot” or perform in the clutch. These subjects still hold a prominent place in today’s baseball conversations, seven years after 56 hit the shelves. For me, this chapter alone was worth the price of the book.

The Verdict

All in all, 56 is a masterstroke. It is a great book about what is, perhaps, the greatest record in professional sports. It is an ideal read for DiMaggio fans, Yankees fans in general, and those interested in taking a closer look at the numbers behind that famous hitting streak. Those curious about American society in the 1930s and 1940s will undoubtedly have a bit of extra fun with 56.

56: Joe DiMaggio and the Last Magic Number In Sports is available in print, digital, and audible formats.

Up Next

On November 28 I’ll be continuing our book review series with The Yankee Years by Tom Verducci and Joe Torre.

The post Book Review – 56: Joe DiMaggio and the Last Magic Number in Sports appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

After Paxton’s bad April start against the Astros, Bryan Hoch reported Beltran approached him in the team’s dining room area. That was where he told him his 5 runs were a result of tipping. From there he and Beltran studied the tape and just like that, everything was all figured out. Paxton then went on to dominate Boston. Surely Carlos Beltran is a genius to see this?

Let’s hold off on that for now. Things get fishy when you look back on the day this news broke.

Here is an interesting Paxton quote from the New York Post in April. He details how Beltran was able to help him:

So they could see if I was going soft or hard,” James Paxton told reporters. “[Beltran] showed me some video. [He said], ‘Look at these takes, look at these swings. They wouldn’t be making these swings or these takes if they didn’t know what was coming.’ That being said, I also didn’t throw the ball very well. I was over the middle of the plate too much, even when there were guys not on second base. So I need to be better as well.

If that isn’t suspicious enough, here is where it gets even more interesting. When Carlos Beltran was asked about Houston’s tampering earlier this week, he said the Astros were really only able to steal signs when men stood on second. During the game where he said Paxton was tipping though, there were no men on second when any of the runs scored.

Here is Beltran’s quote from this week.

The game of baseball for years, guys have given location and if the catchers get lazy and the pitcher doesn’t cover the signs from second base [then] of course players are going to take advantage,” he added. “I don’t call that cheating. I call that using small details to take advantage. I think baseball is doing a great job adding new technology to make sure the game is even for both teams. It’s easy to blame someone when they win.

Here is every scoring play against Paxton that game:

Run 1: Jose Altuve solo shot

Run 2: Yuli Gurriel hits triple, Carlos Correa scores from 1st

Run 3: Carlos Correa doubles, Michael Brantley scores from 1st

Run 4: Jose Altuve solo shot

Run 5: Carlos Correa two-run home run (Michael Brantley, who was on 1st, was charged to Paxton)

Knowing what we know now isn’t it a fair question to ask how, of all the people to point out Paxton was tipping, it was a former member of the Astros championship team? Doesn’t it get even more suspicious that he happened to say something after they left Houston? Paxton had a bad start against the Orioles before that game but he didn’t say anything. The optics just look bad.

FOUL PLAY

It seemed the Astros benefited most by knowing James Paxton’s 4-seam fastball was coming. Going back to that game on Baseball Savant, I counted that they fouled it off more than 21 times.

Of the five scoring plays, four came off that 4-seam fastball. You take away the fastball from a horse like Paxton, that’s it for him.

ANOTHA ONE

José Altuve hits the 101st home run of his career

(via @astros) pic.twitter.com/5gDBHQgRuU

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 11, 2019

My next question is what happened in James Paxton’s playoff start in Houston? They ground him down at home but when he came back to the Bronx, well, it was a different story. We can only guess.

Remember in game two of the ALCS when James Paxton’s fingers were exposed against the Astros and he looked like he was on the brink of disaster every batter but when Chad Green came in, fingers hidden, Houston looked lost? pic.twitter.com/fbPvaxFulN

— Joe (Bronx Pinstripes writer) (@deflategator) November 12, 2019

The post Isn’t it suspicious Carlos Beltran noticed James Paxton was tipping against Houston last April? appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

Yankee fans should be furious. But this isn’t just some Yankee fan-boy opinion: Aaron Boone was better qualified for that award in just about every way. Because of that, the truth has become pretty clear. If Aaron Boone couldn’t win MOY after this past season, it doesn’t seem like any Yankee manager ever will.

Overall Record and Strength of Schedule

Let’s look at a real simple number first: overall record. Boone led his team to a second straight 100-win season. The Yankees finished 103-59, while the Twins finished two games behind them at 101-61. It’s not a huge difference, but it’s more impressive when you consider strength of schedule.

A number of different analytics websites had the Twins with the easiest or second easiest schedule in all of baseball. They played a third of their games against the absolutely terrible AL Central, where the winning percentages of the Chicago White Sox (.447), Kansas City Royals (.364), and Detroit Tigers (.292) were among the worst in baseball. While they did have to fend off the Cleveland Indians, the Yankees had both Tampa Bay and defending World Series Champion Boston in their division, along with a better second half Toronto team.

The Yankees absolutely had a tougher road to 100 wins. Run differential also broke in their favor; Boone led the team to a +204 run differential where Minnesota finished at +185.

The Injury Factor

If a naysayer wants to say that those stats have nothing to do with their managers, fine. I’d say you’re completely wrong, but I get it. A team full of superstars doesn’t need a good manager, I guess. Except that’s not the team Aaron Boone managed for the majority of the season. The Yankees sent 30 players to the injured list. THIRTY! That’s more than an entire roster. That shouldn’t be something a team recovers from.

And the guys getting injured weren’t replacement level nobodies. Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Dellin Betances, and Miguel Andujar all missed the majority of the season. Other key players like CC Sabathia, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, and Luke Voit missed significant time as well.

Half of those players going down to injuries is enough to sink most teams, but Boone kept the Yankees focused and motivated. He continued to get the most out of players nobody had even heard of before this season, and they all overperformed. A lot of that credit needs to go to the manager. These weren’t players who had seen success with other teams. Something Boone and his coaching staff did transformed them.

I think Judge might have said it best: “In your second year as a manager — anywhere — to lose 30 or 40 percent of your team through injuries at some point and still win over 100 games?” Judge said. “That’s something you don’t see every year. That’s what a manager of the year does.”

Head-to-Head

Then, of course, there are the head-to-head matchups. The Yankees haven’t had a losing record against the Twins since 2001 and this year was no different. They went 7-2 against the Twins while sweeping them again in the playoffs. To clarify, they absolutely humiliated them in the playoffs, a time when most think that managers are more relevant in games. They outscored the Twins 23-7 in their three-game sweep, outmaneuvering Baldelli every step of the way. Disregarding the Yankees’ utter playoff dominance against the Twins, how do you not factor in two managers matching up against each other?

Boone and Baldelli ended up getting the same amount of first place votes, with Baldelli getting more second place votes to put him over the top. But that shouldn’t assuage any anger here. Boone deserved MOY more than the third candidate, Kevin Cash (whom his team outplayed to a 12-7 record this year), so the fact that others didn’t vote him at least second over Cash is still infuriating.

We’ll never know which writers voted which way. Maybe a number of them think a big payroll means you never have to be a good manager. Maybe others think Boone just inherited an already good team. Or maybe some won’t ever vote for a big market manager, or more specifically, a Yankee manager. It doesn’t really matter. The point is that Aaron Boone got a significant number of nobodies to carry the Yankees for long stretches of the season, while dominating the other two eligible managers in head-to-head matchups. And he did it with a tougher schedule than the winner.

I’m not sure what more it would take for a Yankee manager to win MOY. They’ll always have a payroll on the higher end of the league, so if managing around 30 injuries and getting 100+ wins in your first two seasons isn’t impressive enough, I’m not sure anything will be.

Aaron Boone got screwed in this vote, and that should upset Yankee fans everywhere.

The post Aaron Boone not winning MOY means no Yankee ever will appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

What are people saying?

So far, the reports on Blake have been overwhelmingly positive. Multiple beat writers and former players have said they hold Blake in high regard, and specifically mentioned his use of analytics in his work with players. Here is a sampling of what people think:

Blake excels on analytic and technology side, lacks on-field coaching experience. That doesn’t seem to bother NYY or other organizations. The NYY hiring Sam Briend from Driveline and now Blake previously from Cressey Sports Performance signals a new direction.

— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) November 8, 2019

A pitcher who worked in the #Indians minor leagues with Matt Blake who is now the #Yankees pitching coach called him “terrific” and praised: "great understanding of analytics but can interpret and make it easy to understand and apply."

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 8, 2019

Just heard from a pitching prospect who had this to say about Matt Blake:

“Best pitching coach I’ve ever worked with. Hands down.”

— Conor Foley (@RailRidersTT) November 8, 2019

Okay, so from that we can tell two important things.

1. Blake is tech-savvy and uses analytics

2. Players like working with him. That fits very well with the Yankees organizational approach of using analytics and hiring guys who are player-first. Those are the reasons the Yankees hired Aaron Boone as manager two years ago. They wanted someone who could relate to players and use analytics in decision making.

How does Blake work?

Blake previously worked at Cressey Sports Performance which is similar to Driveline Baseball. They provide elite training for athletes including pitching training focused on video analysis and the kinetic chain. Cy Young winner Corey Kluber trained at CSP and said the following:

In a great profile by Dan Martin of the New York Post, Blake is described as “ahead of his time” in multiple fronts. Eric Cressey, who founded CSP, described Blake as “very progressive with video analysis.”  In Joe’s piece about what to expect from a new pitching coach, he wrote about how someone who understands how to use advanced tech like the Edgertronic camera is what the Yankees should look for, and they did. Cressey also spoke highly about Blake’s ability to communicate about analytics with players. He said

“You can have all the analytics you want, if you can’t disseminate it to people, it doesn’t matter. And that’s what separates Matt.”

That quote right there is what really excites me about Blake. In 2019 it isn’t about believing in analytics anymore. Everyone does that, except the Mets. It is about interpreting the data and communicating it to players.

Using Advanced Analytics

When Scott spoke with Lindsay Adler of The Athletic on the Bronx Pinstripes Show about the pitching coach position, she mentioned how everyone knows about spin rate now, and the current trend is about spin axis and spin efficiency. Those concepts are more complicated to understand, and you need someone who can communicate information in an easy to understand manner.

For example, the famous example of using video technology to help pitchers is how the Astros showed Verlander to throw his slider differently. It was popping up out of his hand and batters could tell what he was throwing. The Astros pointed this out to him, and his slider has been the second best in baseball over the last two years according to FanGraphs. Now when you try to tell a guy like Verlander who has been pitching all his life to change the way he throws a pitch, the way you do so is very important. Take a look at two approaches to give this information:

“Your pitch tunneling on your slider is low and the spin axis is off.”

“Your slider is popping up out of your hand. Try to stay on top of it more so it looks like your other pitches and spins better.”

Both approaches give the same information, but the second is clearly easier to understand. Blake was a psychology major in college (yes, people have looked that deep into his background!) and I hope that background will help him know how to communicate with players.

In my view, there are four main steps with using video and analytics to help players improve.

1. Get the data. The Yankees are using Rhapsodo cameras and hopefully Edgertronic at all their facilities which will give a treasure trove of data.
2. Interpret the data. According to Marc Carig and Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Cashman slowly assembled the largest analytics team in all of baseball. The Yankees have the nerds to interpret all the data we need.
3. Explain it to the player. Here is where Blake comes in, and hopefully where his effective communication will prove wonders.
4. Make the change. Knowing what to do and actually doing it are two different things. Blake’s background with CSP and the Indians should serve him well in helping pitchers make the mechanical and pitch development changes necessary.

According to a bio of Blake:

“[Blake’s] throwing philosophy is largely drawn from his continuing education into functional anatomy and available research on the overhead throwing population. With a heavy emphasis on video analysis and an integration of concepts from both the Physical Therapy and Strength and Conditioning communities.”

That sounds like a guy who knows how to use information from a variety of sources and integrate it well.

Lastly, and definitely most importantly, his social media game is strong. He understands the Yankee fan culture and liked this tweet by Andrew:

You can contact Rohan on Twitter @rohanarcot20,

The post What to expect from Matt Blake appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.

Due to a number of injuries, successful replacements, and surprise breakout seasons, the Yankees’ infield has a surplus of players entering the 2020 season. Some of that has, for the moment, changed with the decision not to offer shortstop Didi Gregorius this year’s $17.8 million qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent.What once seemed as an automatic for Gregorius to remain in pinstripes, changed after he underwent Tommy John Surgery following the 2018 season.

It wasn’t all that long ago that everyone thought Brian Cashman was crazy after acquiring the Yankees’ Renaissance Man from Arizona in a three-team deal.  This was the guy that was going to replace Derek Jeter? We heard he had a great glove but couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag, and then he struggled defensively to start his first season in the Bronx.

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Andújar only had a 2.8 fWAR because of his historically horrendous defense, and that’s what people will always bring up when talking about Andújar and his future with the Yankees. In 1169 1/3 innings at third base, he recorded minus-25 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), -10.9 RngR (Range Runs), -16.0 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), and a -24.5 UZR/150 (UZR prorated over 150 games).

According to Inside Edge Fielding—which can be found on FanGraphs)—he only made 94.6% of “routine” plays (90-100% chance of an out) and 69.0% of “likely” plays (60-90% chance of an out). His routine play conversion rate was 18th out of 19 qualifying third basemen, as only Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox was worse with a 93.8% “routine” play conversion rate, while his “likely” play conversion rate was 15th out of 19 qualifying third basemen.

What’s this mean? Andújar can’t field a baseball at a major-league level and he has zero range.

Pretty much it became apparent that he’s probably better suited for another position—like first base or the outfield—or in a DH role as a hitter-only, just because he still has a lot of offensive value… at least you’d think that.

For comparison, Gio Urshela made 96.0% of “routine” plays (still not that great, 12th out of 17 qualifiers) in 2019, but he made 85.7% of “likely” plays (sixth out of 17 qualifiers). The crazy thing about Urshela is that while his defensive metrics were not in his favor, Inside Edge Fielding (which is what’s used for these percentages) shows other things. It shows he made 42.1% of “unlikely” plays (10-40% chance of an out)—and that was the third-best rate among qualified third basemen in 2019, only behind Matt Chapman (staggering 73.7% “unlikely” play conversion rate) and Nolan Arenado (55.6%). Urshela was middle of the pack in converting “about even” plays (40-60% chance of an out), sporting a 56.3% conversion rate in 2019.

Andújar’s “about even” play conversion rate in 2018 was a mere 10.0%, while he had an “unlikely” play conversion rate of 6.7%. Again, it’s crazy that he played 1169 1/3 innings of major-league defense, or whatever you want to call what he was doing over there, in 2018.

Anyway, Andújar had a really bad 12-game sample size in 2019 that was plagued by a torn labrum in his shoulder. In 49 plate appearances, he hit .128/.143/.128 with a .121 wOBA and a -36 wRC+. That’s really, really bad. However, you have to take into account that he was playing injured for most of those games when he returned prematurely from the injury… before having to hang it up for the season and undergo surgery.

After looking at Andújar’s surface numbers and not really taking into account his abysmal performance at the plate in 2019 because of his shoulder injury, you’d have to believe he has a lot of value for the Yankees at least offensively, right? A 130 wRC+ is pretty good, right? Yeah, a 130 wRC+ is pretty good, but the Statcast numbers tell another story.

Andújar had an expected batting average (xBA) of .281 in 2018, 16 percentage points lower than his actual batting average of .297, while sporting an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .444, 83 percentage points lower than his actual slugging percentage of .527.

He was severely out-hitting his expected stats, meaning Andújar was getting pretty lucky at the plate. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .326 was 35 percentage points lower than his actual wOBA of .361. If he had hit his expected stats instead of his actual stats, he would have been more of a league-average hitter, as FanGraphs defines a wOBA of .320 as “average.”

Also, he swings at too many pitches out of the zone (36.0% chase rate) and doesn’t work any counts (33.8% first-pitch swing rate), which factors into the former. Sure, Andújar hit .351 (33-for-94) with an xBA of .343, wOBA of .423 and an xwOBA of .382, which is spectacular, when putting the ball in play on the first pitch in 2018, but all of his numbers plummet after the first pitch in a plate appearance for him.

In plate appearances that he didn’t walk in or get hit by a pitch (so balls in play or strikeouts), Andújar had a wOBA of .345 (total wOBA was .361) and an xwOBA of .308 (total xwOBA was .326). He also only walks 4.1% of the time and unless a player’s hit tool is off the charts (and Andújar does have a solid hit tool, but it’s not good enough for a guy that rarely walks) that doesn’t bode well. You generally want someone to get on base at a rate over 30-31% and his true talent suggests that’s not where he lies.

My point here is that it would be wise to not expect Andújar to replicate what he did in 2018 again in 2020, even if he’s 100% healthy. His expected stats tell you a bunch of what he did in 2018 was pure luck… not exactly a fluke, but to expect him to put up a 130 wRC+ again might be wishful thinking.

My question is the following: Is there really much value to a player that can’t play a lick of defense, is out-hitting his expected stats by a large amount, has a true talent offensive value that’s around league-average, and walks at a minuscule rate? I’d say he has way less value than most Yankees’ fans think.

The emergence of Gio Urshela at third base for the Yankees in 2019 makes things even more interesting. Urshela’s Statcast numbers tell you that his expected stats somewhat mirror his actual stats (.314 BA/.294 xBA, .534 SLG/.505 xSLG, .369 wOBA/.353 xwOBA), meaning his production is sustainable.

Also, Urshela actually plays major-league level defense—though the analytics jury is still out on how good he actually is, so I’ll wait until the Sports Information Solutions’ DRS update comes out (which will account for how shifting has hurt some players or helped some players, since those kind of adjustments are on the team and not the player) and Infield OAA (Outs Above Average) from Statcast is made available, but Urshela gets the job done.

Urshela seems to have third base locked down going into 2020, so where’s that leave Andújar?

Obviously, there are a number of things you could do with him. You could have him be a DH at the MLB level, you could have him be a bat off the bench—but he only brings offensive value, so that’s kind of pointless to an extent—or you could stash him in the minors and further develop him offensively and defensively.

Some might say move him to another position or trade him. Moving someone with not much feel defensively like Andújar probably puts him in the minors for an extended period of time. Andújar himself doesn’t really have remotely any trade value, either, because all he brings to the table is a bat—and he got pretty lucky during his rookie seasons and teams can see that—and at 24 years old, he’s looking like a future DH in the league.

He, like Clint Frazier—who is just a bat with below-league average defense—are probably viewed more as supplementary pieces in a potential trade and not package leaders.

So, what would I personally do with Andújar? First off, I’d love to keep him in the organization. He’s still a somewhat talented bat, has a solid amount of team control left, and he doesn’t turn 25 until March.

I’d see how he bounces back in spring training and if he’s mashing the ball, maybe have him be a DH since you can have 26 players on an active roster starting in 2020. I still don’t really anticipate him being in the 2020 Opening Day lineup unless he either goes absolutely bonkers during spring ball or injuries —which were the story of the 2019 Yankees—allow him to be inserted into the lineup.

However, if including Andújar in a trade can net a solid return for a starting pitcher or something else, I wouldn’t hesitate to move him. I wouldn’t be actively shopping him, but I’d for sure be listening on offers that include the third baseman.

The post Why Miguel Andújar got lucky in ’18 & his value for ’20 appeared first on Bronx Pinstripes | BronxPinstripes.com.