When Yankee youngsters Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez both announced their participation in the 2017 Home Run Derby, there was a split reaction among fans. At the same time their decisions were cheered, a group of fans could be heard derisively groaning.
There’s a not too uncommon thought around baseball that players lose their swing as they adjust to slug home runs during the derby, falling into slumps during the second half of the season. If that’s true, Yankees fans have a right to groan. Sanchez and Judge have been some of the only bright spots during the Yankees horrific slide since mid-June.
Past Derby Finalists
So is there really a derby hangover for participants? Let’s take a look at first and second half stats of Home Run Derby finalists from the last 4 years. The All-star Break isn’t actually halfway through the season, so it’s important to pay attention to how many games were in each half.
*scroll right to left to view more stats
2013 Bryce Harper
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
58 |
57 |
242 |
201 |
38 |
53 |
9 |
2 |
13 |
29 |
6 |
3 |
36 |
44 |
.264 |
.371 |
.522 |
.893 |
105 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
.272 |
108 |
147 |
2nd Half |
60 |
57 |
255 |
223 |
33 |
63 |
15 |
1 |
7 |
29 |
5 |
1 |
25 |
50 |
.283 |
.366 |
.453 |
.819 |
101 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
.335 |
93 |
131 |
First up is Bryce Harper. Harper’s HR and BB took a bit of a dip after the derby, but his batting average increased and he hit six more doubles. He had only four fewer total bases in the second half of the season. His slugging percentage and OPS, however, both took slight dips and those are arguably the more important stats.
2013 Yoenis Cespedes
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
79 |
78 |
341 |
307 |
46 |
69 |
11 |
2 |
15 |
43 |
5 |
6 |
27 |
80 |
.225 |
.293 |
.420 |
.713 |
129 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
.251 |
95 |
97 |
2nd Half |
56 |
55 |
233 |
222 |
28 |
58 |
10 |
2 |
11 |
37 |
2 |
1 |
10 |
57 |
.261 |
.296 |
.473 |
.769 |
105 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
.305 |
108 |
114 |
2014 Yoenis Cespedes
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
90 |
87 |
384 |
353 |
53 |
87 |
21 |
3 |
14 |
56 |
1 |
2 |
27 |
73 |
.246 |
.299 |
.442 |
.741 |
156 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
.271 |
98 |
108 |
2nd Half |
62 |
60 |
261 |
247 |
36 |
69 |
15 |
3 |
8 |
44 |
6 |
0 |
8 |
55 |
.279 |
.303 |
.462 |
.764 |
114 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
.324 |
103 |
119 |
Cespedes made it to the finals in both 2013 and 2014. With both cases his numbers actually improved in the second halves of each season. In 2013 he hit only four fewer home runs in 23 fewer games, hitting for a slugging percentage and OPS. In 2014 those stats improved as well. Worth noting is he was traded from cavernous Oakland to hitter-friendly Boston on July 31st, 2014. That may have helped his numbers slightly.
2014 Todd Frazier
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
94 |
93 |
400 |
362 |
57 |
105 |
17 |
1 |
19 |
53 |
14 |
5 |
32 |
81 |
.290 |
.353 |
.500 |
.853 |
181 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
.326 |
114 |
140 |
2nd Half |
63 |
62 |
260 |
235 |
31 |
58 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
27 |
6 |
3 |
20 |
58 |
.247 |
.312 |
.396 |
.707 |
93 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
.284 |
79 |
104 |
2015 Todd Frazier
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
85 |
85 |
374 |
342 |
54 |
97 |
26 |
1 |
25 |
57 |
8 |
4 |
24 |
65 |
.284 |
.337 |
.585 |
.922 |
200 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
.282 |
126 |
155 |
2nd Half |
72 |
70 |
304 |
277 |
28 |
61 |
17 |
0 |
10 |
32 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
72 |
.220 |
.274 |
.390 |
.664 |
108 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
.256 |
67 |
80 |
2016 Todd Frazier
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
86 |
86 |
367 |
319 |
51 |
68 |
9 |
0 |
25 |
57 |
6 |
2 |
40 |
85 |
.213 |
.305 |
.476 |
.782 |
152 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
.202 |
104 |
108 |
2nd Half |
72 |
72 |
299 |
271 |
38 |
65 |
12 |
0 |
15 |
41 |
9 |
3 |
24 |
78 |
.240 |
.299 |
.450 |
.749 |
122 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
.276 |
96 |
102 |
Most people probably forget that Todd Frazier has been in the finals of the last three derbies. Frazier had huge drop-offs in 2014 and 2015 after the derby with a slightly lesser drop-off in 2016. Makes you wonder why he keeps doing it. In 2014 his slugging percentage dropped a whopping .104. In 2015 it dropped an insane .195. Frazier’s OPS that year dropped from .922 to .664. Yikes. Even in 2016 his slugging OPS dropped a little by roughly 30 points. Frazier could just be more of a first half player, but his post-derby second halves have been pretty poor.
2016 Giancarlo Stanton
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
76 |
73 |
321 |
279 |
40 |
65 |
11 |
1 |
20 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
107 |
.233 |
.328 |
.495 |
.823 |
138 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
.294 |
102 |
120 |
2nd Half |
43 |
35 |
149 |
134 |
16 |
34 |
9 |
0 |
7 |
24 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
33 |
.254 |
.322 |
.478 |
.800 |
64 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
.284 |
96 |
116 |
Stanton’s power numbers dropped slightly after the derby last year, albeit in 33 fewer games thanks to a season-ending injury. Stanton had a strong July before slumping in August and getting hurt. His slugging percentage and OPS stayed fairly consistent throughout the season, though lower than his career stats.
2015 Joc Pederson
Split |
G |
GS |
PA |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
TB |
GDP |
HBP |
SH |
SF |
IBB |
ROE |
BAbip |
tOPS+ |
sOPS+ |
1st Half |
89 |
83 |
366 |
300 |
46 |
69 |
15 |
1 |
20 |
40 |
2 |
5 |
58 |
107 |
.230 |
.364 |
.487 |
.851 |
146 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
.282 |
122 |
139 |
2nd Half |
62 |
54 |
219 |
180 |
21 |
32 |
4 |
0 |
6 |
14 |
2 |
2 |
34 |
63 |
.178 |
.317 |
.300 |
.617 |
54 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
.232 |
64 |
71 |
Joc Pederson suffered a major slump after the derby in 2015. His slugging percentage dropped almost 200 points and his OPS dropped over 200 points. Not only that, his batting average sat below the Mendoza line and he hit just 6 home runs across 62 games.
Conclusion
It’s a small sample size but only Cespedes saw any improvement after the Home Run Derby. The rest of the derby finalists had downturns, ranging from slight to significant. Is it enough to conclude that the derby affects hitters? Probably not, but there is slight correlation. The truth is, whether or not his swing is affected, it’s unlikely Aaron Judge (and maybe even Sanchez) performs at his current level for the rest of the season. If he does he’ll be even further stamped into history than he already is in his young career.