The current market for free agents stalled out somewhat over the holidays and many big name players still don’t have a place to play in 2016. With over $1 billion being spent on several high profile pitchers plus Jason Heyward, many teams might be playing the waiting game to see if the price on the remaining free agents will drop to a more reasonable level. Justin Upton is one such player still available. Upon closer inspection, a one-year deal might not be as far fetched as it would have seemed in November and the Yankees just might be in line to be one of the beneficiaries of such a move.
First, let’s make a couple of things perfectly clear. Justin Upton will get and probably already has a multi-year offer. He will be playing somewhere in 2016. But, let’s say he is seeking a 6 year, $120 million deal as has been reported, and because of the big spending that has already taken place only receives a 3- or 4-year offer. Taking a chance on a one-year deal with a contending team with a hitter friendly park could set him up for a bigger payday next year when the free agent class will be very weak with few big names at the top of the list. Of course, Yankee Stadium doesn’t provide the same advantages for right-handed hitters as it does left-handers, but the allure could be tempting.
Reports yesterday stated that Upton was still in the market for a long-term contract. “We are not considering shorter-term deals at this time. The goal has been and will continue to be a long-term contract for Justin Upton,” agent Larry Reynolds told MLB.com. What else did you expect from his agent? A one-year deal similar to what Nelson Cruz signed with the Orioles in 2014 could entice the 28-year-old three-time National League All-Star to the Bronx.
The upside for Upton would be playing for a contending team in the Yankees and he would bring some much needed right-handed power to Yankee Stadium. Since making his MLB debut as a 19-year-old in 2007 with Arizona, Upton has hit 190 homers, stolen 115 bases and recorded an OPS of .825. Steamer projects his 2016 slash line to be .260/.343/467 with 38 homers and 12 stolen bases. That would fit nicely in the lineup with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Brian McCann.
As mentioned, the 2017 free agent class is very thin at the top, especially when it comes to outfielders. Jose Bautista, Jay Bruce, and Alex Rios are the bigger names on that list. Upton would certainly be head and shoulders above those three and would still be on the right side of 30.
A couple of things would probably have to happen from the Yankees side to make this deal possible if it were presented to them. First, Upton would command a high dollar salary on a one-year deal. I would assume that it would probably be north of $20 million. It’s uncertain that the Steinbrenners would be interested in adding that much payroll. Secondly, a deal would need to be reached to get a young starter in exchange for some sort of package involving Brett Gardner. As long as there are no teams willing to make such a deal, the connection between Upton and the Yankees makes less sense. Third, the Padres made a qualifying offer to Upton after the 2015 season, so the Yankees would have to cough up their first round draft pick, which currently stands as the number 19 pick.
The odds are probably long that Upton lands in the Bronx. And probably even longer that it would be on a one-year deal. But, as the days count down towards Spring Training, the idea could gain traction and definitely becomes more intriguing. If Brian Cashman were to be able to pull off these moves, the 2016 Yankees lineup would be improved and the starting rotation could be strengthened. I think all Yankees fans would approve of that.
