Are the Yankees World Series favorites? FiveThirtyEight’s projections say…

 

Major League Baseball hasn’t seen a team repeat as World Series champions since the 1998-99 Yankees. However, if advanced season projections are any indication, the Houston Astros have a legitimate chance to defend their title.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s season projections and win-loss simulations, which were released on Wednesday afternoon, the Astros have been given a 14-percent chance to win the 2018 World Series. The Cleveland Indians, which finished last season with the best record in the American League (102-60), are also listed at 14-percent, while the defending National League champion Los Angeles Dodgers are given a 13-percent chance. 

So, where do the Yankees stand? FiveThirtyEight predicts the team will finish the regular season with 95 wins, and their chances of winning a title for the first time since 2009 are marked at 10-percent, tied with the Chicago Cubs. 

Although New York has the fourth-best odds to reach the Fall Classic, their odds to win the American League East are far greater. FiveThirtyEight projects that the Yankees have a 48-percent chance to win the division and a 74-percent chance to reach the postseason. Trailing in the division are the Boston Red Sox (projected 91 wins, 33-percent chance to win AL East), Toronto Blue Jays (81 wins, 10-percent chance), Tampa Bay Rays (78 wins, 6-percent chance), and Baltimore Orioles (72 wins, 3-percent chance).

Based on records, FiveThirtyEight predicts that the Indians will obtain the best record in baseball at 99-63, followed by the Astros and Dodgers at 97-65. The Yankees and Cubs are both marked at 95-67. 

Of the 10 teams that reached the postseason last October, FiveThirtyEight expects nine of them to return, as the National League Wild Card will include the St. Louis Cardinals this season, rather than the Colorado Rockies. 

FiveThirtyEight also incorporates a statistic called “Elo ratings.” According to their site, these ratings are a measure of “team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent.” The system also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, and the average team rating is marked at 1,500. This season, the Yankees’ Elo rating is 1,565 — the fourth-highest in baseball (Astros are first: 1,577).

The Yankees open the 2018 season with a four-game series against the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, followed by a two-game set against the Rays and three-game set against the Orioles at Yankee Stadium. 

 

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