If you’ve been reading my blogs or listening to The Bronx Pinstripes Show, which now has its very own Twitter account: @YankeesPodcast (shameless plug), then you know I’ve firmly planted my flag in the “Yankees should sell” camp.
Despite back-to-back walk off wins that sent Yankees Twitter into a frenzy, the 2016 Yankees have a Mt. Everest climb to make if they want to reach the playoffs. Today they start a 10 game road trip that features a west coast swing and 4 vs the hottest team in baseball. They’re looking at 6 teams above them in the Wild Card standings which means there are too many scenarios that would have to happen for the Yanks to secure a spot in the playoff game, the biggest factor being they would have to play close to .600 ball the remainder of the year.
But don’t be alarmed – there is good news. The Yankees have a farm system with more talent than it has seen in nearly two decades. Aaron Judge is tearing-up the International League with an eye on the Bronx, Greg Bird proved he’s a big league hitter in crunch-time last year, Luis Severino has promise of being a top-of-the-rotation starter despite his 2016 struggles, and Gary Sanchez’s bat behind the plate is All Star caliber. Not to mention the handful of other names that should have fans excited – Jorge Mateo, Tyler Wade, and James Kaprielian, to name a few.
Ah, but there is a catch (you knew there’d be a catch, right?). Prospects are fickle. Let’s use 2010 as an example. Any list of top Yankees prospects that year would have featured the names Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, and Slade Heathcott.
Betances has worked out spectacularly even though he was a starter back then. Banuelos was traded long after his value plummeted and Montero, who was also shipped out of town, is mostly known for an incident involving an ice cream sandwich and his first base coach. Brackman never recovered from elbow injuries and Heathcott was a career minor leaguer before being released by the Yankees earlier this season.
At one point in time the Yankees organization was very high on all of those players, but you cannot count on prospects working out no matter how much of a sure thing they may seem.
That brings us to 2016. With the Yankees fading harder than John Sterling’s eyesight, it would behoove Brian Cashman to take advantage of this selling opportunity that does not come up for the Yankees often.
The newest and hottest rumor in the MLB trade streets is that the Cubs are interested in Andrew Miller, and would be willing to part with Kyle Schwarber.
Oh, now you’re paying attention?
If you ask me, the Cubs should want more than a reliever – albeit a great one – in return for a power hitting 23-year-old, but for the case of this argument let’s assume there’s merit to the rumor.
Schwarber suffered a brutal season-ending knee injury in early April. The Cubs have not missed his bat though, seeing as how they possess the best record in baseball (51-26), have scored the third most runs (412), and have the best run differential (2.2) by a wide margin.
Schwarber is an old school grip-it and rip-it type hitter. He’s rugged and stocky, with the ideal body for a 40-and-over beer softball league. He had an eye-popping 1.042 OPS in 147 minor league games and cracked 16 home runs during his rookie season with the Cubs, including 5 more in the playoffs.
Schwarber was the Cubs’ starting left fielder on Opening Day and they were counting on him to be a run producer while shifting him around the field trying to conceal his fielding deficiencies. You may have heard he does not have a position. Well, that is an understatement.
Kyle was a catcher/outfielder in the minors but got through because of his bat. During his 2015 rookie season, Schwarber played 21 games behind the plate where he posted defensive metrics that even Jesus Montero would be embarrassed by. The Cubs moved him to LF, where he had a -2 Total Zone Runs Fielding Above Average (Rtot), which measures the number of runs above or below average the player was based on the number of plays he made. For context, Carlos Beltran’s Rtot this season is -0. Put as much weight into defensive sabermetrics as you want, but if you think the Yankees can just hide Schwarber in the outfield, think again.
Considering the Yankees feel Refsnyder has no position, I can only imagine what they think of Schwarby (Girardi’s future nickname for him). Schwarber is a DH, which makes him a prime target for an AL team, with a swing that is tailor-made for Yankee Stadium.
With an addition like Schwarber, the Yankees would have a young offensive crop that features Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro, Bird, Judge, and Refsnyder, with Sanchez on his way.
Now is not the time to plan the future of this team positon-by-position or have delusions of grandeur. Cashman’s primary goal should be to stockpile as much young talent as possible in preparation for 2017 and beyond. Trade as many older players off the current roster, because chances are they are not going to be around the next time the Yankees win a championship.
The Yankees are not exempt from having down years, and are foolish to think they can rebuild while avoiding one. I only hope 2016 is not another lost season like 2013 and ’14 was.
