We live in a reactionary society. Typically, the NFL is characterized as a copycat league (remember when the Wildcat offense was a thing? Yeah, that was a fun 3 weeks) but baseball has become no different. Many GM’s around the league attempted to emulate the Royals flame-throwing bullpen over the past two seasons just like they tried to emulate the Moneyball philosophy a decade ago.
Now, the 2016 MLB postseason has introduced yet another trend; specifically, Terry Francona’s use of Andrew Miller.
I hate even calling it a “trend.” What Francona does with Andrew Miller is use him anywhere from the fifth inning on, when the game is at its most critical juncture. It makes perfect sense. Why not use your best pitcher, a pitcher who racked-up 21 strike outs in 11.2 scoreless innings en route to the ALCS MVP, when the opposing team is threatening most?
That should not be considered a trend, but rather good managing. Regardless, teams have fallen into a trap of believing they need a lockdown closer to finish games. In reality, Mariano Rivera probably caused that belief. For 17 years Mariano was the best weapon in baseball. Teams played an eight-inning game against the Yankees – even less in October – which put the opposition on its heels before even taking the field.
It would have been a ballsy (and unpopular) decision for Joe Torre or Joe Girardi to use Mariano as a non-traditional closer, but an argument can be made that the Yankees would have been better off if they used Rivera like Francona is using Miller, as a fire extinguisher. There were countless games that were decided before the ninth inning with guys like Paul Quantrill, Scott Proctor, and Kyle Farnsworth on the mound instead of Mariano Rivera.
Had Torre or Girardi used Rivera unconventionally, the trend would now be mainstream. But here we are in October of 2016 and Terry Francona is rocking the very foundation traditional baseball managing was built on.
How can the 2017 Yankees benefit from this movement? Easy: turn Dellin Betances into a bullpen fireman.
Having Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman in the same bullpen was an embarrassment of riches. In fact, I’m not even sure it was beneficial to the team’s success.
At times it seemed Girardi was more concerned with getting to the seventh inning than he was winning innings one through six, which of course is the precursor to having a good bullpen. When the team did have a lead entering the seventh, regardless of how well his current pitcher was going, Betances would predictably be used, followed by Miller and Chapman. This regimented bullpen routine negated any flexibility the Big 3 had while training, like unknowing puppy dogs, starters to go only six innings. What resulted was a tired Betances, a traded Miller and Chapman, and a starting rotation unable to pitch deep into games.
What I’m proposing for 2017 is a departure from traditional bullpen habit and a shift towards the new — turn Dellin Betances into the Yankees version of the Indians Andrew Miller.
I realize a lot has to happen in order for this to occur. First, Joe Girardi has to be willing to manage this way. Second, he has to be capable of evaluating when to pull the Betances trigger and when to leave him in the holster. Third, the Yankees must be comfortable with having Tyler Clippard (or someone else, maybe from free agency) be the traditional “closer.” Finally, and most importantly, Betances has to be able to take the job as fire extinguisher.
I believe in Dellin Betances’ abilities despite his September numbers as the Yankees closer. I feel his lack of fastball command, which was the root of his struggles, was a result of fatigue. We saw the same thing towards the end of 2015. My belief is that a shift in Betances’ role will allow him to get added rest throughout the season, preserving his stuff for a pennant race while maximizing his bullets for high-leverage situations.
2017 is going to be different in a lot of ways, so what’s one more?
