$22 Million for a .235 Hitter When Dominguez Is Right There

I get it. Trent Grisham had a career year. Thirty-four homers, .812 OPS, 143 games played. For a guy the Yankees basically picked up off the scrap heap for $5 million, that's a hell of a return. I'm not saying it wasn't -- he's a nice player.

But the New York Yankees committed $22 million to a center fielder who hit .235, posted minus-11 defensive runs saved (fourth-worst among qualified center fielders), and turned 29 in November -- while Jasson Dominguez is standing right there, bags packed, ready to play every day. That's the part that bothers me.

And now that rosters are set, it's official: it played out exactly the way it shouldn't have.

The QO Gamble That Didn't Need to Happen

Brian Cashman called the qualifying offer a "50-50 call." He figured Grisham might test free agency after a 34-homer season, and the Yankees would pocket a draft pick. Instead, Grisham looked at a thin outfield market, looked at $22.025 million guaranteed, and said "where do I sign?" Can you blame him? I can't. But the front office should've seen this coming.

The whole point of a qualifying offer is supposed to be a bet you're comfortable losing either way. If the guy leaves, you get compensation. If he stays, you're paying fair value for the production. But $22 million for Grisham's production? That's overpaying for a league-average bat with declining defense when you've got cheaper (and potentially better) options already in the organization.

Grisham went 4-for-30 this spring. That's a .133 average with zero home runs in 12 Grapefruit League games. Zero. The guy who hit 34 last year couldn't put one out in a month of camp. His slash line sits at .133/.212/.167 -- the slugging is lower than the on-base. Meanwhile, the projections (ZiPS has him at .216/.329/.416 with 25 homers) suggest last year's power was closer to a peak than a baseline. Not exactly reassuring.

The Dominguez File

Jasson Dominguez played 123 games last year. His first real crack at consistent big league time. The line -- .257/.331/.388 with 10 homers and 23 steals -- doesn't jump off the page. I know that.

But here's what people keep glossing over: the kid was 22 years old, coming off a torn UCL that cost him most of 2024, and he still finished among the top AL rookies in stolen bases, runs scored, and walks. He drew 41 free passes in 429 plate appearances. That's plate discipline you can't teach.

And on May 9th, he became the youngest Yankee to hit three homers in a game -- at 22 years and 91 days, breaking Joe DiMaggio's record from 1937. Including a grand slam. Two from the left side, one from the right. Seven RBI. The switch-hitting power is real. It's just not fully online yet.

You want a snapshot of what Dominguez can do when you actually let him hit? ALDS Game 4, October 8th, Yankee Stadium, ninth inning -- the season on the line, down 5-1 to the Blue Jays. Boone sends him up to pinch-hit for Volpe. His first career postseason at-bat. And he ripped a leadoff double to right-center off Hoffman that damn near impaled the wall. I was screaming in the stands. Judge singled him home later in the inning. They still lost 5-2, the season ended in four games, but that double told you everything you needed to know. A 22-year-old, biggest moment of his life, and he looked like the calmest guy in the building. That's not a fourth outfielder. That's an everyday player.

Give Dominguez 143 games (Grisham's total) instead of 123, and a full offseason to build on his rookie year instead of rehabbing an elbow? The gap between his numbers and Grisham's .235/.348/.464 line starts to close fast. The power numbers won't match Grisham's 34 homers right away -- but Dominguez hits for a higher average, gets on base at a comparable rate, and brings a speed element (23 steals on 82% success rate) that Grisham doesn't have. That's a more complete player.

(And he'd cost roughly $750,000 instead of $22 million. Sounds like extra shopping money.)

This spring, Dominguez hit .325 with three homers, 10 RBI, and three stolen bases in 14 Grapefruit League games. He went 13-for-40. He worked on a toe-tap instead of a full leg kick and took a lefty deep -- addressing his biggest weakness (.186 against lefties in the bigs) after going to winter ball for extra reps. The kid is putting in the work.

And the Yankees optioned him on March 20th.

The Opening Day outfield: Judge in right, Bellinger in left, Grisham in center. The bench outfield spot went to Randal Grichuk -- a 34-year-old non-roster invitee on a minor league deal. Boone says it's about "the back of the baseball card." Dominguez's baseball card is being written right now, and they won't let him write it in the Bronx.

Dominguez vs. Grisham

Let me put it this way. If you told me I could have one of these two outfield profiles for 2026, no names attached:

Player A: .235/.348/.464, 34 HR, 74 RBI, minus-11 DRS, $22 million, projecting for .216 this year, .133 in spring with zero homers

Player B: .257/.331/.388, 10 HR, 23 SB, 23 years old, $750K, .325 in spring with 3 HR and 3 SB in 14 games (with a swing adjustment and winter ball reps in the tank)

I'm taking Player B every time. Not because he's clearly better right now -- Grisham's power was legit last year -- but because you're investing in upside instead of paying a premium for a known ceiling. Grisham's 2025 was probably the best season he'll ever have. Dominguez hasn't had his best season yet.

And it's not just Dominguez waiting. Spencer Jones -- .274/.362/.571 with 35 homers and 29 steals in the minors last year -- hit .333/.455/.889 this spring with the team-high three home runs and still got optioned to Triple-A on March 9th. The outfield depth is there. The front office just won't use it.

The Real Cost

This isn't just about the money (although $22 million for Grisham when the team also signed Cody Bellinger for $162.5 million this winter is... a lot of outfield dollars). It's about development time.

Dominguez needs at-bats. Consistent, everyday, "you're our guy" at-bats. Not the platoon-slash-fourth-outfielder treatment he got last year behind Bellinger, Grisham, and Judge. Instead, he's in Scranton while Grichuk rides the bench.

The qualifying offer was supposed to be a no-lose move. Instead, it might've cost the Yankees the thing they need most -- a real answer to their outfield future that doesn't involve paying $22 million for a guy hitting his name's weight.

I'll watch Grisham this year and hope he proves me wrong. But every time Dominguez rakes in Scranton, I'll be thinking about that double off the wall in Game 4 -- a 22-year-old, first postseason at-bat, season slipping away, and he looked like he'd been there his whole life. That's an everyday player.